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yunohn

> I do speculate that there will be a massive number of casualties during the transition

Okay, but how massive? What is acceptable to you relative to the world population?

> But it’s NOT the goal.

Why is there so much marketing and messaging around “Don’t be left behind”, similar to how you phrased it earlier?

> Much like other chaotic events that resulted in increased freedom for regular citizens.

Maybe you could provide some examples that display a similar situation?

> live your life without worrying about what bullshit the fed is up to.

Monetary policy needs to influence wages etc, and lead to equitable outcomes vs inflation. Crypto won’t solve societal ills like this.

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> Why is there so much marketing and messaging around “Don’t be left behind”, similar to how you phrased it earlier?

I can answer for myself. I speculate that a transition from fiat to crypto is inevitable unless a black swan event occurs. (Eg a new way to represent value is invented that is superior to fiat and crypto that is currently inconceivable today)

If the transition to crypto does occur, it clearly benefits early adopters. In late phases of the transition, there will be very few people willing to trade crypto for fiat.

Herein lies ammo for the crowd shouting “CRYPTO IS A PONZI”. But the truth is that all desirable possessions are this way. If you bought beach-front property in a great city decades ago, you’re going to be able to sell it to the next “sucker” for a huge profit. Likewise, Apple stock. Likewise, a baseball rookie card. Etcetc

> Okay, but how massive?

This is a difficult question. It depends on if the transition is a gradual, long term grind. Or if some event occurs that shocks the system and causes a mad rush to cryptocurrencies. I hope for the former and fear for the latter.

> In late phases of the transition, there will be very few people willing to trade crypto for fiat.

How many people are left without crypto? How do you envision this scenario playing out?

> In late phases of the transition, there will be very few people willing to trade crypto for fiat.

Given that supply is limited, how do people transition sustainably? If the supply is only hodlers, they obviously don’t want fiat. Why is anyone exchanging for fiat once the transition is certain?

> But the truth is that all desirable possessions are this way

But currency is a tool, not a “desirable possession”. It shouldn’t be limited to niches of the real world population. Not everybody needs beach front property, but they do need money.

> I hope for the former and fear for the latter.

As one prepares for this future, what is the expected usable value of the coin they are hodling? How do you know if you have enough for when fiat is worthless? Should one own a full Bitcoin? More? Less?

The further we transition to crypto, the more people will have the option to be paid in crypto for their jobs. In this way, nobody will be "left without crypto". People with life savings in fiat that refuse to transition will be the clear losers. Sadly, I think it will be elderly that do not understand crypto and have never questioned currency that have the most to lose here.

> But currency is a tool, not a “desirable possession”.

So people don't desire to possess $1,000,000? This is clearly not a truthful statement.

It’s very telling that you’re ignoring half of my questions in every response.

> People with life savings in fiat that refuse to transition will be the clear losers.

Who is forcing them to transition? Is it the government? Why did the government change currencies to crypto, without aiding their citizens?

> Sadly, I think it will be elderly that do not understand crypto

What about normal people? What price and coin do you suggest I buy, and in what quantity to prepare myself for this future?

> So people don't desire to possess $1,000,000?

While I don’t deny that people like large numbers on their bank statement, the goal of owning so much currency is to exchange it for products and services. They don’t care if it’s USD or BTC, as long as everyone else accepts the same. What they will care about is when you tell them that you have to exchange fiat for BTC/etc at a volatile price with built-in deflationary mechanisms. Again, you’ve ignored my question about supply and how to sustainably on-ramp the entire world populace into crypto.

> It’s very telling that you’re ignoring half of my questions in every response.

I've enjoyed this thread but I can only provide it so much time and effort. Hopefully, you will find other sources to help answer your questions.

> Who is forcing them to transition? Is it the government? Why did the government change currencies to crypto, without aiding their citizens?

Free markets & will-toward-freedom forces the change. In theory, governments could accumulate crypto now and airdrop it to citizens later.

> Again, you’ve ignored my question about supply and how to sustainably on-ramp the entire world populace into crypto.

There is no such God-like control over this transition. I've clearly stated that I don't believe it will be pretty and equitable. It will be messy and chaotic.

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