There won’t be a War in Ukraine because Russia already won | Hacker News Reader

There won’t be a War in Ukraine because Russia already won

old.reddit.com

12 pointssirspacey17 comments

The first coherent explanation of the Ukraine / Russian border conflict I’ve seen.

When it doesn't say anything about possible deescalation but instead switches topic to iran, then it isn't very coherent.

Such a concentration of russian armed forces never happened before. Are you okay with implied forecast that they will in the end do nothing just memes and fud?

Russia has been conducting this exercise every year for over decade. E.G.

2020: Russian Military Exercises Near Ukraine. 100 to 120 thousand troops. No WW3, no threat of nukes. https://empr.media/news/conflict-zone/russian-military-exerc...

earlier:

2016 https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-...

2017 https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2017/09/13/whats-putin-up...

2018 https://archive.is/0gqL0

2019 https://radiolemberg.com/en/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almos...

It was never over 100,000 troops before, thanks for corroboration.

And it was not accompanied with urgent demands to undo all NATO expansion.

First link says 100,000 to 120,000

It says that was an expectation. Afterwards, the Russian ministry of defense reported 80000 troops actually involved in “Caucasus-2020”. This info was very easy to find.

Thanks. How many troops has the Russian ministry of defense reported this time?

Seems they are not done yet.

Also what's the reason Russia must do these exercises always near Ukraine border? They don't have enough place elsewhere?

It is the only place that is a realistic risk of invasion to Russia.

Then why not try to improve relationships with neighbors instead of such maneuvers or outright taking territories? I am from Slovakia and it's well known what money from local Russian embassy is used for. Definitely not for improving international relationships.

Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine already. Russia will not hesitate to use military force if they feel like it. The post is right that they can pull back and still come out ahead, but wrong to claim that invasion is not something Russia does or might do. Also Russia is the master of disinformation so citing Russia’s claim that they won’t invade undermines credibility of the author. Russia loves to say one thing and do another

Reading this, I would recommend to listen to the analogy about the "card deck" (in the video in the link) maybe it will help you to put 2 and 2 together in the Russia context, and perhaps motivate you to get real knowledge about world affairs, or at least, familiarize yourself with the principles of nation-state interactions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tixOyiR8B-8

That’s quite the presumptions. Anyway Are you suggesting it’s wise to take what the Russian media and government says at face value? While I do enjoy learning and reading different perspectives, I don’t appreciate recommendations with large red flags about integrity of the logic. Nor do I appreciate being negged. So thank you sir and good day to you.

Going to come correct all your posts now?

First, my heart does go to people in Ukraine found themselves in conditions not of their doing or their wishes. At similar place was my heart with Iraqi during shock and awe attack with 2 Tomahawk missiles per minute hitting them first 24 hours, million of people died directly and many more indirectly in that war. Same with Syrian war or Lybian or any other war which leaves disarray and destruction in its wake. Ordinary citizens suffer the most and it is tragic. There is little one can do once the war machine is on (especially if a nuclear power is the culprit). That is without dispute and no additional commentary needed.

However, the geopolitical and strategic principles are by extension natural laws and there is a solid theory behind that. There are facts (some of which are not known to us) in which US/EU stance forced/pushed Russian elites to conclusion that they need to assert themselves militarily (that is also not controversial ... this goes back 2 decades). The tug of war among different interest resulted in this situation. Tensions exists and can be converted into destructive force if not handled properly, or perceived to be (again nothing controversial).

If Russia elites made decision surely weighing the cost/benefits (strategic as well as tactical) that's that. EU and US interests with Ukraine are also not parallel if one studies the history, and this situation is no different (although not pertinent to discuss). Media is managed by both sides, narratives are prepared for respective populations, there is nothing controversial here. International law is in its infancy and selectively applied, and mostly non-enforceable against a super-power.

Moving to today's situation, wars have their life cycle determined by force fields of international state players. Nevertheless, on personal level I would join you in a being opposed to any war, and denouncing aggression on civilian targets regardless of the culprit.

Your comments were saying/arguing Russia would not invade and implying I and others were naive for believing they would invade.

Now your comment is simply calling up Iraq and similar because two wrong make a right apparently. Even worse than that, apparently because “Russian elites” weighed the options your comment seems to be excusing this pointless war and carnage wrought by an arrogant man in a bubble who’s living in a warped view of the past. Now both Ukrainians and their Russian brethren are dying fighting each other purely for the vanity and delusions of a weak minded man. There is a picture of a fallen Russian soldier covered in snow by a burned out vehicle, this is what the Putin desired.Russians are suffering, Ukrainians are suffering. But the “elites” weighed it your comment says! Let the elites be the ones fighting and dying then. They do not care about average Russians. They only care about power and graft.

I do not find those explanations of the proven wrong logic from the earlier comments to be in good faith. The passive prevaricating and pseudo intellectual tone of the comment is, in my most generous interpretation, akin to the passive avoidance tone some take when caught completely in the wrong but unwilling to admit being wrong to themselves or others. I would hope being wrong about such a grave matter would be sobering and cause more introspection but apparently that has not happened. The sympathy towards Ukrainians does not come off as being sincere in the context of the comment.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com