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Comment by mobilio | Hacker News Reader

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mobilio·

There won't be a war.

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"No war" as in no further invasion at all?

(there already is war and what is yet to come can be on any scale)

Well I hope so, but don't think so.

Why do you think that? If it's a bluff, it's taking a long time, with a lot of actions edging closer to war.

There won't be a war precisely because it's taking a long time, just a bluff.

On the contrary, the bluff is costly and it's costing money every day. It doesn't make sense to continue it for long after seeing that the initial public objectives aren't attainable. Furthermore, the evacuations and mobilisations from the separatist republics, and the false flag bombs and stuff, feel like going too far for merely bluffing.

> false flag bombs and stuff, feel like going too far for merely bluffing.

Again, to me, this is the definition of bluff. It's literally in your sentence "_false_ flag bombs"

False flag as in, the Russians plant a bomb, and say it's the Ukrainians who planted it, to make up a casus belli.

Oligarchs have been taking a lot of flights out of Russia recently:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dypwvy/ukraine-oligarchs-fle...

If it's a bluff, it's a bloody good one.

The article is about Ukrainian oligarchs running away, which just means they're scared of Russia and doesn't indicate any insider knowledge ( even if one of them is a leader of a pro-Russian party and there might be a connection).

Yes my bad. I read an article about it the other day but linked to the wrong one.

Yes, Russia will take whatever it wants within a week, calling it "humanitarian mission" to help poor separatist being murdered by bloodthirsty Ukrainian army.

My bad english, meant to write "what would a war between [...] mean".

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