I thought that as well but my friends and I have done this a few times and most people can’t once you standardize temperature and move away from any desert wines (not a large sample size of course). Try it yourself and make sure not to let anything else get in the way (double blind where possible, all other factors exactly the same). I’ll also note that I’m not a complete noob, the group was in Napa on a wine tasting when we did this and most of us like wine and have done enough tasting and touring to know a little, maybe our pallets aren’t great, none of us are sommeliers or anywhere close :)