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It's certainly possible, I just don't see any real evidence for it yet. AI has a history of promising demos and then very long (decades) stalls in progress. I could be wrong, but I'm skeptical of the current round of AI as well. It will generate code in the same way as AI generates online articles or music - not very well.

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I think that by 2030 we should have conversations that produce most of business software. Think of CLI + AI. There are already people working on this. My bet is on Microsoft or them buying winning startup

My experience is that the problem with producing business software is not the lack of programming knowledge. Rather it's a lack of people who understand the business and are capable of abstract thought and formalizing processes. I don't see AI helping with that any time soon.

But who will verify results of this conversation? Who will be the one to make changes, create changes, verify that changes are correct? Who will take blame if error happens?

Customer or user of this software?

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