#2 already happened in 2020 with Uber & Lyft significantly cutting their engineering workforce (but not fully like a bankruptcy might entail).

I remember feeling concern about the local SF job market at the time, it was totally unfounded.

The demand for software engineers that can ship product is very deep.

FAANG engineers might not like the non-FAANG offers they might get at smaller firms, but they are solid jobs & you can easily retire on the timeframe set by the previous generation's yardstick (62-70 y/o).