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Comment by ianbutler | Hacker News Reader

So the Quest 2 sold over 12million headsets in the last year. And over the last few years VR has seen a growth rate of over 20% YOY. I always wonder if when people like you make a comment if you actually look at figures or just go with your gut because you don't like something. I'm guessing the latter. The mass adoption is happening right under your nose, an entire generation of US kids are growing up with VR right now because of the perfect storm of lack of consoles, a pandemic keeping them home and widely available cheap hardware from Meta.

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> So the Quest 2 sold over 12million headsets in the last year. And over the last few years VR has seen a growth rate of over 20% YOY.

Right. So how on earth does this 'Simula One' stand a chance against the rest of the competition, especially when Apple, Sony, Microsoft plan on or are already competing against Meta?

Compared to the competition, price and adoption, the 'Simula One' is a first-gen obsolete contraption.

> I always wonder if when people like you make a comment if you actually look at figures or just go with your gut because you don't like something.

Then you are just as bad as I am. Pulling figures without sources and then saying 'actually look at figures' isn't evidence. Where is the source for the 12 Million and 20% YoY? Just Google it isn't evidence either.

Then this this also you:

> an entire generation of US kids are growing up with VR right now because of the perfect storm of lack of consoles, a pandemic keeping them home...

The US is not the world and people (and kids) simply won't stay in-doors forever, since lockdowns aren't forever. It's quite silly to think that kids would want to stay in-doors like they did in the pandemic to justify the 'need' for VR other than playing games in the metaverse.

For devices like Simula One, it's dead on arrival due to the mindshare of the Oculus / Meta Quest. If there was the next device to surpass the iPhone, it is simply AR glasses. Otherwise, why exactly is Google [0] Meta [1] trying to get there before Apple eventually does?

> ...and widely available cheap hardware from Meta.

Thank you for confirming that the 'Simula One' stands no chance at all against Meta Quest.

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/google-acquires-north-augmen...

[1] https://www.roadtovr.com/project-nazare-ar-glasses-facebooks...

>For devices like Simula One, it's dead on arrival due to the mindshare of the Oculus / Meta Quest.

I don't understand why you (and other users here) compare this to Oculus. Oculus is a Redmi phone of VR. Yeah, people buy it, and most individuals (~70% of steam users) buy 1080 monitors.

Still, there is a considerable market for 6k Apple Displays or 4k monitors. And people still buy top-tier phones for ~1k USD when they can buy a model for 250-300 and get 90% features and performance (usually except camera) of a 1k device.

I got Oculus Quest and used a few other VR and still will consider Simula because it's a device for me, someone who buys 6k Apple Display, 64 GB ram laptops, and 3080Ti GPU. Someone who wants crisp fonts, high PPI, optimized DE for Linux system. Because I need it for my needs, and there are million people like me.

I don't think it would, but it doesn't have to because they're not targeting the same market which is pretty obvious. And that wasn't your initial argument either, your argument was a generalization against the whole of VR.

My whole initial argument is both towards the late to market and obsolete first-gen ‘Simula One’ against the crowded competition and predicting the next consumer product that will likely supersede the iPhone and it clearly isn’t VR headsets as I have explained and you have already admitted.

> your argument was a generalization against the whole of VR.

My generalization of VR is towards its limited market and use cases to special VR games or VR training. Other than that, what other uses cases exist for it?

Also, where are the sources to that 12 million and 20% year over year figures that you just brought up?

I think we both know how limited and niche VR headsets are towards games and VR training.

> you have already admitted.

I admitted that the Simula doesn't compete against the Quest, but they're not in competition with one another and they never were. So I'm not sure what you think you've gotten here, other than intentionally misinterpreting me in bad faith to fit a bad argument.

> Also, where are the sources to that 12 million and 20% year over year figures that you just brought up?

Here are some sources,

https://www.pcgamer.com/meta-quest-store-revenue-quadrupled-... https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/16/22785469/meta-oculus-que... https://www.protocol.com/vr-growth-forecast-pwc https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/vir...

Each one of them actually deeply exceeds my quoted growth number, both for hardware and software. The only one to note is it was 10million units back in November of last year based on statements from QUALCOMM, which from how you've been going so far, I'm going to assume you're going to interpret in the worst light possible.

VR is used by a lot of people for chatting, watching movies, fitness, some people work in it pretty regularly for development it's pretty varied and you'd know that if you actually knew anything about the space which is why I really can't take your arguments seriously.

You're so confidently negative without actually having used any of it, not a great look, but that's your choice I guess.

> VR is used by a lot of people for chatting, watching movies, fitness, some people work in it pretty regularly for development...

So basically specialist VR apps and VR training. Who is going to run in the park with that contraption on their head or go to a restaurant with that? Even previously with the first-gen AR glasses, we had the Glassholes. Now we have a first-gen VR contraption that claims it can be used in public with AR. And it is even worse.

> I'm going to assume you're going to interpret in the worst light possible.

There is a reason why I said the Simula One is late to the market and is obsolete on price, form-factor and its target market against Meta Quest, HTC Vive, or even the expensive HoloLens 2. I don't see why anyone other than Linux VR developers / geeks spending thousands would want a first-gen contraption like that. A very very limited target niche market for the Simula One.

> It's pretty varied and you'd know that if you actually knew anything about the space which is why I really can't take your arguments seriously.

I can assure you that no one will take the adoption of VR beyond VR games or VR training seriously, or even as the next platform of computing like the PC and iPhone, unless it shrinks into the form of glasses. That will certainly come from either Meta, Apple or Google and certainly not from hobbyist gadgets like the Simula.

> You're so confidently negative without actually having used any of it, not a great look, but that's your choice I guess.

Given one of the sources you linked [0] and [1] [2] I am even more confident that AR glasses (or even XR only in the form of glasses) are the next mass adopted computing platform after the iPhone. Not the current VR headsets or even the Simula which is appeals to its limited market of Linux VR enthusiasts.

[0] https://twitter.com/anshelsag/status/1460631153564659716/pho...

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/google-acquires-north-augmen...

[2] https://www.roadtovr.com/project-nazare-ar-glasses-facebooks...

In my opinion it's more the contrast and the expectation.

I am waiting for something like the metaverse and I do realize that it will not happen as hoped.

I got 3D glasses in 2005 or so when I had a crt display and it was a fun novelty.

I watched 3D movies in the cinema and it's a nice novelty but I do prefer a brighter screen.

I watched 3D movie on a flat screen display and it was okay.

I got a HTC vive pro with wireless and valve index controllers and it's also a nice novelty so far.

VR is in my opinion a success if it becomes normal but no one really uses it day to day.

20 million devices? From a global company? In a market were 14 year old kids already own a 1000$ phone? Success I don't know.

People bought 3D televisions as well so that's that.

My personal expectation was that VR is going to be used for training people to drive, industriel training and lighthearted sports. But as something central like I imagined the metaverse or what ready player one proposed? We are far away from that.

That portable Linux VR headset will lay around at plenty of places of nerds having fun of it for a bit and then it becomes obsolete. An expensive toy.

> VR is in my opinion a success if it becomes normal but no one really uses it day to day.

I think pretty much all the members of my family regularly play games in VR (on their own headsets).

> But as something central like I imagined the metaverse or what ready player one proposed?

We don’t actually want that. That movie was supposed to display something dystopian. Meta is something dystopian.

Heh. My personal take on Facebook's Metaverse[1] is that it jams the entire framing of VR computing through the prism of "social network", which causes all kinds of poor product focus and misaligned incentives.

With that said, I personally don't mind Meta selling Quest units at a loss. It's been a net good for the ecosystem (IMO), and has exposed a lot of people to VR who wouldn't be able to afford a headset otherwise. I just think their product direction & focus is otherwise shit.

[1] https://simulavr.com/blog/we-dont-want-the-metaverse/

It's mostly just a shitty version of VRChat with people you don't like.

I'll start by saying I don't want a metaverse and no one else I know with VR headsets do either. We really like them as media consumption devices and for gaming, chatting and working out. But I don't want to or need to live in the device and they don't either.

You have to look at the curve of adoption VS total number, the trajectory they're on. In only 3 years they've managed to grow to that number. If it continues they will be at console numbers in under 10 years. Which a quick Google has told me before is about 85-100 million consoles.

Gaming and media, fitness and social are massive multi 100s of billion dollar markets and I see that being the long term success of VR not this live your life in it type deal.

Also friendly reminder a lot of these cyberpunkesque films and shows are dystopic in nature it's not to be emulated it's to depict failings of society that led to those states. I love the aesthetic of cyberpunk as much as anyone else but the societies they live in are warnings to us, not desired outcomes.

    I always wonder if when people like you make a
    comment if you actually look at figures or just
    go with your gut because you don't like something.
    I'm guessing the latter.

On the other hand, I don't wonder whether people who think negging is an argument are fanbois.

Well since you cut out my actual argument and substantiation I guess you could see it that way. I tend to negg on top of making my arguments though.

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