They didn't have 200k troops and tons of military gear amassed around their borders for 8 years. It's hard to believe anyone who's been paying attention to the buildup would've thought they're there just to chill out.
Kind of like the IT admin that doesn't check backup integrity often enough because there's never been a data loss issue in years.
Like, I get that the previous buildups could be dismissed as saber rattling and training exercises, but Putin literally announcing, "HEY I'M COMING IN, I'M SENDING IN TROOPS TO UKRAINE NOW", how do you dismiss that?
You're never sure whether the Chinese submarine is "exercising its rights to international waters" or is preparing for a strike; or the US-Swedish troops are just making friends with each other or getting ready to invade.
That's totally apart from the obvious "sabre rattling" bit.