So when Lukasenko dies then Russia will invaide Belarus and kill bunch of people who they don’t like Putin?
Through these years humanity learned to expect perpetual and cold stalemate as an inevitable paradigm between Russia and the West.
Over these generations, humanity has on average become wealthier and more educated and more democratic - all correlates of robust peace between nations.
You’re not the only one surprised. I have little doubt that everyone, even the CIA analysts generating grim predictions before the invasion, was at some level unable to believe something like this was possible in 2022.
We can still hope to prove it was the absurd strategic mistake our intuition had hoped it was.
Why doesn't this scare people to death?
> Why doesn't this scare people to death?
The human hierarchy of fear seems sorted by proximity and tractability, not a rational calculus of risk and probability. Abstract threats, or those percieved unavoidable, might inspire only apathy.
And indeed, what can I possibly do about rumors of Russia considering nuclear war? I've kept Potassium Iodide stocked since 2014, which seemed practical and easy.
Regarding Lukashenko, I have a contrarian theory that Lukashenko actually considers himself justified in rigging elections, authoritarianism, and Putin-alignment because being a Putin patsy dictator is preferable for the Belarusian people over democratic change that would result in the same fate for Belarus as Ukraine is experiencing. (his thoughts, not mine, although a weak case could be made)