Have you not seen any examples in history of "civilian freedom fighters" (there's an Arabic word for that, I think.........) getting a lot over an "experienced military"?
Victory of civilian militias, guerilla groups, etc. against imperial powers is usually because occupation of the former's territory is a sunk cost for the latter. America, Haiti, Cuba, Vietnam, etc. are not really comparable to this present conflict, in which the imperial power is adjacent both in terms of land and history.
Exactly. Many are missing the point that Russia is not trying to annexe Ukraine, but have 2 goals - ideally do a regime change that favours Russia's security concerns or destabilise the country and make it such a shit hole that even the west avoids it. The west on the other hand want to prolong this conflict because it knows that the longer the people are in a state of warfare, the more the people will turn against the Russian invaders (provided ofcourse, their local support and propaganda weakens).