Yes, my assessment was based on this knowledge.

EDIT: Maybe I should add a bit of context: Even if Gas can be filled in from other sources there are limits and the price will hike quite a bit even if there is enough. Furthermore it's unlikely that Russia will take it lying down, cyber attacks on infrastructure for deviling Gas are to be expected and maybe even physical sabotage. At the same time to safe money many Countries have kept increasingly smaller Gas reserves in recent years.

I agree. But cutting imports from Russia quickly will be a major task. Is the US going to support the EU with subsidized energy to help with the transformation?

Shares of EU imports as of 2019 from Russia where as follows:

    Coal: 46.7 %
    Gas: 41.1 %
    Crude oil: 26.9 %
    

(Note: These figures are shares of imports, i.e. they do not consider domestic EU production.)

Source: Eurostat at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2...

One can not switch overnight to LNG. The infrastructure does not exist for it.

It isn’t entirely up to Germany to decide on a strategy that works for them. With the restrictions on SWIFT it’s entirely plausible that deliveries will seize, either because there no way to pay for them, or because Russia is willing to hurt itself in retribution.

Stores will get Hermany over the winter. No matter what happens, there will be a major push to improve efficiencies. Next winter might also see a return of COVID-era home office policies, allowing offices to shut down and reduce demand.

I've been using a DIY air source heat pump (repurposed conventional air conditioner) for the last 6 years and the investment has been quite successful. Roughly the same bill as with gas, but I don't go through annual inspections etc. I paid ~EUR2500 for the whole heat pump installation. Unfortunately, conventional heat pumps (e.g. Mitsubishi, Daikin, LG etc) with the same capacity were priced about 3x that and as other have pointed out, were not economically feasible. Possible explanations for the latter are either marketing gimmicks (heat pumps are for the rich) or a lack of big enough addressable market.

I am not sure how easy it is to repurpose newer air conditioners that have a lot more electronics. Also keep in mind that in order to use a heat pumps efficiently, your heating system must be designed to work with relatively low fluid temperatures (mine runs at ~37 degrees centigrade). What worked best for me was a heated wall + fan convector for the living spaces and oversized radiators for the bedrooms.

> If gas cuts out one can use an electric stove.

That statement seems to conveniently ignore the reality of how electricity is generated and how much of it is available.

Cut off the gas supply without adequate notice, and the power grid will fail.

Germany is the richest affected country. There will be deaths in the eastern EU if this is done without massive western financial support, any COVID-related budget will be dwarfed 100x by what is needed for this, no eastern state has nearly enough money for it even if they dedicated their entire budget.