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Comment by kadoban | Hacker News Reader

That doesn't really work that well in a strong dictatorship.

Does if enough people do it. Strong dictatorship be damned. Heck Ukrainians stood up to a brutal crackdown in the Maidan revolution to oust a pro-Russian puppet leader. It's about numbers and resolve.

At best that's a messy plan. Are you willing to intentionally make millions of people as miserable as possible on the slim chance that they'll overthrow the people with all the guns and power?

Note that the Maidan revolution was driven from within, as far as I know, not forced on the people from without.

When the flipside of the equation is potentially MAD then, yes.

what is the other option?

Millions are already miserable on the slim chance that they'll overcome the people with all the guns and power and retain their sovereignty and freedom (i.e., Ukraine if that wasn't clear).

The Ukrainian people deserve our help and support. They're doing the best they can with a really shitty situation.

I just would not intentionally target the _common_ Russian people as much as it can be avoided. Hurt the oligarchs, Putin, anyone who is actually helping him, etc.

It won't be painless for the common Russian people, and we can't really help that. But targetting them is just hurtful for no benefit.

On the contrary hurting them will provide a very strong signal to them that something is actually quite wrong. Kremlin is a propaganda machine and while some don't believe what they hear there are others that do. It gets kind of harder and harder to believe you're the good guy when things like that start happening to you. It may prompt you to look at alternative, non-Kremlin news sources and formed a more accurate picture. This may in turn lead to higher and higher numbers of people willing to revolt against Putin.

It's absolutely a last resort, but this is the highest stakes game in existence and there is no time to mess around.

That sounds like a plan that _at best_ works on the timeline of years, and more likely never works.

What is the alternative?

If I had an easy one, I wouldn't just be some jackass on the internet. But "let's make millions of people miserable on purpose" doesn't sound like a great start to me. Has it ever worked, either?

If your government makes a bad decision, it affects you. That's just how it works.

I'm not too familiar with history but IIRC most empires fall when they lose internal cohesion or get invaded by a bigger empire. The only alternative to an internal revolution is an invasion (AFAIK). That's not feasible with MAD. Alternatively you can just give them what they want. For how long you can keep that up is the question tho.

Or you can do what we're currently attempting and aim to hurt those in power.

Will the common people be affected? Yes. But that shouldn't be the goal.

I don't think that is the goal. The goal is to stop the war and prevent further escalation. Of course you should focus on the ones who have power, but they are going to use the "general population" as shields. And you don't want to have useless sanctions just so you don't affect the common people.

It's the goal I read from the comment I was responding to:

> This perception that ordinary people should be immune to the actions of their governments is weird. Civilian opposition to their government is what prevents unnecessary wars. It's not other's duty to fix your country. Civil unrest is the only way to prevent war and a lot of bloodshed.

Fair. I was saying that as a rebuttal of what i perceived is a common view (bad for normal russians = bad sanction). My intent was more in that line versus aiming to penalize citizen. But I do also believe (and it showed in my comment) that affecting laypeople is something that is viable as a last resort (and better than war).

Ah, yeah I don't think we can avoid harming normal Russians and wouldn't say that makes sanctions wrong. We do have to do _something_.

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