1) The special offers Kindle's will become their best selling models. The offers are totally not distracting. And maybe more importantly, the offers seem to actually be quite good. Even if they special offers and non-special offers were both priced the same, I might be inclined to get the special offers Kindle.
2) There's clearly a tablet market. The iPad though is just so far better than the rest that it's a non-starter to look at anything else. Will the Kindle Fire be the first tablet that threatens it? Maybe. Depends on three things: 1) Quality of web browser. 2) Quality of email app. 3) General responsiveness. If it can nail those three then I think we can see a holiday season where Kindle Fires sell like crazy to the detriment of iPads.
I could see people saying, "I'd love an iPad, but I'd still be stoked to get a Kindle Fire." Given the $300 price delta, a lot of people may be getting the Kindle Fire.