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Comment by qnsi | Hacker News Reader

CNN finds that twice as many Russians believe it would be right for Moscow to use military force to prevent Kyiv from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as say it would be wrong.

One out of every two Russians (50%) says it would be right, while only a quarter (25%) say it would be wrong. The other quarter (25%) are unsure, according to the survey.

But the poll also found that more Russians think it would be wrong than right to use military force “to reunite Russia and Ukraine” – two countries with a long and complicated history of being intertwined.

It’s a close call, but 43% of Russians said use of military force against Ukraine to join it to Russia would be wrong, while 36% said it would be right. (The rest of the respondents said they didn’t know if it would be right or wrong.)

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/02/europe/russia-uk...

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Anecdotal but...

I was recently chatting with an old coworker. Their mother is still in Russia. The mother watches state run TV and listens to state run news.

She doesn't really believe this is happening because the news says otherwise. She may believe there is some fighting but not that Russia is the aggressor.

Obviously this is one relayed experience but it's important to keep propaganda machines in mind when talking about volumes of support.

Spending effort on convincing their family and friends that the state propaganda is not to be trusted is probably the best middle-term investment a Russian can make right now.

Have tried it with my parents, unfortunately, they eat all this crap from Putin's TV. People who are brainwashed can't really be talked into reason. Politics start and end wars, but a person can break ties with his family irreversible because of those in-family political discussions.

Note that convincing them that they're wrong is less important and much harder to do than convincing them that new things they may see in state media may be wrong. It's about instilling doubt, not about arguing with your parents about politics. The propaganda is most likely going to go into scary territories now, so any doubt will be helpful.

Tell them things that will scare them. Anything that will scare them. How much they will personally come to suffer because of the the sanctions of Russia because of the war in Ukraine. How Russia is not able to import anything. How poor they will become.

These polls paint a somewhat different picture. I'm not claiming that they're more accurate than yours. Just that it's difficult to understand the situation as an outsider. Sample size is at least 1600 people and was done by the independent Levada Center.

> Who do you think initiated the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine?:

50%: U.S., NATO countries

> In the event of an outbreak of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, should Russia engage in armed conflict on the side of the DPR/LPR? (percent of respondents)

Exactly split down the middle, 14% said it's difficult to answer.

> How, in your opinion, would the attitudes of Russians change toward Vladimir Putin in the event of a full-scale war with Ukraine? (percent of respondents)

8% net bias towards thinking that it would make him less popular.

> Do you think Russia needs to improve relations with the U.S. and other Western countries? (one response allowed)

Overwhelming yes (79%)

source: https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/5-polls-contextualize...

>> Who do you think initiated the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine?:

> 50%: U.S., NATO countries

What would have been somewhat encouraging would have been if the other 50% were like 45-49% "Russia" and 1-4% "Undecided" or "Other". Turns out, though, that:

> 16% think that Ukraine was the initiator. Meanwhile, only 4% named Russia

So, either they are pretty much deluded nationalists, or Putin's state-media brainwashing has been overwhelmingly successful.

(Any particular reason you left that bit out of your comment?)

Imagine answering "don't know" to any question that starts with "would it be right to use military force", let alone those questions.

Keep also in mind their view (whether self determined or propagandized) is that joining NATO means joining a coalition that may want to attack Russia. So the actual question in their mind is somewhat similar to ours — is it right to use preemptive military action, if the alternative is a bigger war down the line? It’s not an easy question to answer.

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