An insane baseball proposal: Dual league restructuring
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If you are going to restructure the leagues, it should be done geographically - West, Southeast/MidAtlantic, Great Lakes and East. With the elimination of the DH, it makes exactly no sense for LA teams to each play 50+ east coast games and only 6 against each other. That would also allow for some expansion as cities like Nashville, Portland and SLC could easily fill out some of the regions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/08/mlb-antitru...
Yes and: adopt European style club system for all intramural sports, thereby separating scholatics from sports in our public education system. As a taxpayer, I object to subsidizing professional sport's farm system.
Aside: the book Mine! by Heller and Salzman touches on professional sports in the USA. Ownership, property rights, labor relations, etc. Has some nice complimentary insights.
Personally, I'd like to see the season shortened (in # of games) to give each game a more outsized impact. Give teams a bit more rest to enable shorter rotations (star pitchers get more game time) and expand the playoffs slightly (via play-in games) to lessen the soul crushing nature of missing the playoffs by a single game after a grueling 162 game season. Not that any of these ideas are novel or perfect, but it's clear baseball has engagement issues that are not improving any time soon.
In the case of baseball, the negotiations are being held up by the small-market owners because the existing system is so beneficial to them. There is a de-facto salary cap through the Competitive Balance Tax, which directs money straight from the richest to the poorest teams. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the poor teams spend that money on actually improving their team.
I don't see any non-North American system where small-market teams perform this well. In the NFL, small-market Cincinnati was just in the Super Bowl because of a draft process that rewards poor performance.
I would also argue that this would negatively impact small-market teams, which would all but guarantee a much smaller overall total revenue stream for the sport. (If I'm a small market fan, why should I pay to watch sub-par performance? There's a reason AAA ball or MLSNext or G-League teams draw much smaller crowds.) Players would get paid less, owners would get paid less. Who is going to sign up for that?
What's funny is that with the power shifts in the NBA to the players these days is that the stars are essentially dictating where they want to play, and those spots (generally) do not include small-market arenas. Indeed, several players have been pretty vocal about this. So we may already be headed in the direction of multiple league tiers for each sport already just by virtue of the shift in player mobility.
This is the exception that proves the rule. The fact that winning the EPL was such a monumental upset and that you have to go back 5 years to find it, kind of proves the entire point. Them falling back to 12th place is further evidence of the difficulty of maintaining success as a small-market in European soccer. Compare to the sustained small-market successes in US sports like Oakland A's or Tampa bay Rays in the MLB, Green Bay and Pittsburgh in the NFL, the Memphis Grizzlies or San Antonio Spurs in the NBA.
> And they won the EPL trophy straight out of League One the year they were promoted.
This is false, they finished 14th in EPL for the 2014-15 season. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_in_English_foo...
And then there are the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets, who consistently spend hoarded top draft picks to not win championships.
Well, maybe being a perennially mediocre team in a state with high income taxes, maybe. Or a Canadian team when the dollar is strong.
I'd rather see something where the regular season is shortened to like 140 games and have it end around Labor Day. Then have a full 8 teams per league make the playoffs with FULL 7 game series with the World Series still finishing at the end of Oct / beginning of Nov.
Then if you wanted to have something like this relegation setup for the teams that don't make it in, go ahead. They can all play each other and their minor leaguers still get to have all the "call up" time that the playoff teams don't get.
I also think we need to get rid of the nonsense of pitchers hitting, fans want more scoring, not less. Additionally, we can address some of the length with a simple rule that any pitcher that enters the game must face 3 hitters. If the pitchers are injured, they can bypass this rule but must go on the DL.
For National Association play only, the starting pitcher or any substitute pitcher is required to pitch to a minimum of three consecutive batters, including the batter then at bat (or any sub- stitute batter), until such batters are put out or reach first base, or until the offensive team is put out, unless the starting pitcher or substitute pitcher sustains injury or illness which, in the umpire-in-chief’s judgment, incapacitates him from further play as a pitcher.
https://content.mlb.com/documents/2/2/4/305750224/2019_Offic...
That said, there are no American sports with a promotion/relegation system (probably because those systems evolved organically in Europe from local teams just becoming good and gaining a following, and the American way of having billionaires owning one of a small, fixed set of teams means that they want to protect their investments and wouldn't accept a chance of being relegated and losing their valuable TV money), so it would be interesting if one of them picked it up. From an outsider's perspective, though, I think it'd probably be better to bias towards simplicity instead of trying to fix every problem. E.g. instead of having the "must win 86 games in two/three seasons to make it to the champions league", fix the number of teams in the top league and promote the top of the bottom league and relegate the bottom of the top league. Making the system more complicated to prevent teams from tanking probably isn't a worthwhile tradeoff, since 1) it sucks when teams tank, but it's very exciting when a bad team starts to do very well (e.g. the Bengals at this year's Super Bowl), and 2) that system still doesn't stop the teams at the bottom of the second league from tanking, since there's no punishment for them and they can get better draft picks.
Though my 2c to improve baseball as someone who just started watching football and tried to follow baseball when I was younger:
1. Reduce the number of games. In football, there are so few games that each one matters a lot. In baseball, there are so many that it's hard to be invested.
2. Find a way to make games more fun to watch on TV. Going to a ballpark in person is always a fun, chill experience as long as you bring a friend. That atmosphere doesn't translate when you're watching on TV, so the game itself probably has to be made more exciting in some way (add more time pressure, or let the players take steroids /s).
Also the TV money split is very inequitable in Spain with Real Madrid and Barca getting ~50% of the leagues TV money where as in England the TV money split is much more equitable. Baseball also doesn't have a Champion's League so that's no issue.
With baseball you could have a fairly equitable split on TV money and a salary tax at a certain point so you would still get different teams winning over time.
This is sort of true, but I'd argue it still results in a better product than the American model. Pro/rel in Europe tends to vary based on the way TV rights money is divided and how much is available. In Spain, your description is pretty accurate, since Real Madrid and Barcelona can negotiate their own rights with minimal revenue sharing. Those two teams will always be near the top, as demonstrated by Barcelona's performance this year - they've been complete trash and are still tied for 4th on points. In England the TV money gets divided up more evenly, and the result is that big clubs can fail if their management is poor - Newcastle, West Ham, Aston Villa, Fulham, and other large clubs have experience relegation. Everton is at risk of it for the first time ever (I believe) due to some really poor decisions by their front office. On the other hand, Leicester City - a team no one had heard of - won the EPL in 2016.
I'd prefer the league with a handful of locked-in elite clubs where mobility is possible than a league where 1/3rd of the teams are incentivized to lose, and another 1/3 know they have nothing to play for while the season is still going.
It's equally unlikely to ever happen.
I'd implement a few economic reforms:
- Decent wages for minor leaguers - Hard salary cap and floor per team such that players take home ~55% of revenue
And a few gameplay reforms:
- Pitch clock, to speed up pace of play - Tweak the baseball and/or mound placement, to discourage the home run / strikeout style and incentivize more balls in play - Cap the number of relief pitchers per game
This would make the game faster, more visually appealing, more equitable between teams (so every team will be forced to spend / have a good shot to keep their best players) all without any extreme changes.
Maybe there should be some negative/positive weight on draft picks based on how "moribund" a franchise is over time. Calculate a running average of the pick quality and project a statistical estimate of how good your team should be. If it sucks over a long time (I'm talking a rolling 10 year average and as a somewhat fan of the Detroit Lions... yeah) then the team shouldn't get the cream of the crop, they should lose 5-10 positions in the first round.
And that's the real rub: at some point bad franchises aren't bad luck, bad players, bad coaches, or even bad GMs. They are failures because of ownership which is far more entrenched.
Relegation in soccer is really the only mechanism for this.
I also think there should be an exclusive "national signing day" for pro football where each team gets 1 player a year they can sign regardless of their draft position in the first round (assuming they can get a player wants to sign with them) and they forgo their first round pick. That would counteract tanking in the NFL because the really good players will avoid the crap teams. Of course there is a pay scale in the first round so they would take less money...
Baseball has strange levels of collusion among the owners, I think from generations of labor strife, which the NFL has avoided for some reason.
College athletics are kind of a multi-tier league like the article. And I'm not talking D-I/II/III. There are the Power5, and then even within the Power5, there are established powerhouses. Preferential placement, games that change in importance and estimation in the "rankings".
Of course college doesn't have the draft, which this entire proposal revolves around: preventing tanking for the draft. College has forced 4-6 year turnover that prevents decade-plus star careers from overtilting the advantage and seems to be a sufficient "chaos monkey"... although the 4 team CFP in football seems to have concentrated power in only a couple schools.
Is this "good"? Eh. It does make name brands. It makes for lazy reporters in an otherwise cacophonous landscape of a 100-odd schools who only follow five or ten schools.
For a small market team, not spending on player salary to be competitive is simply a profitable proposition due to revenue share from the entire league. There is little incentive to spend a ton of money and be profit negative in the hopes the team may win and experience a transient increase in popularity. So much of the money comes from TV contracts and a team becoming good might get them a few more primetime games per year but their local TV contracts which broadcast half of their games are based on viewership which simply isn't that elastic - are people going to move to an area if a team is good for 2 or 3 years? Are complete non sports fans going to be compelled to learn a myriad of rules, player names, league competition scenarios, etc. out of the blue? Are there local demographic changes (population, age) which would negate any positive momentum in the preceding issues?
i'm not naïve enough to think there is a simple answer to any of this; MLB has presumably known and been working on this for close to 30 years. Is the game of baseball simply reaching the end of its place in time?
The issue right now is that the Yankees and Dodgers each get one vote, while the Marlins and Pirates also each get one vote on any matter like this. Most of the teams are not located in NY, CA, or Chicago where there's major fan bases and ownership that's willing to spend to appease these fan bases. At best, I could see about half a dozen owners benefitting from this, a dozen actively harmed by it, and the rest in a grey area of "being motivated to do better at baseball" by it.
I can see how this idea serves the fans and players, but how does it help billionaires fleece local governments for stadium subsidies/cozy up to local politicians to help grease the wheels of their ACTUAL businesses? I'm very anti-owner class, but I'll still admit you need to propose an idea they would actually like for it to be considered serious. This does not help the majority of owners fulfil their actual goals, which is acquiring currency at the greatest rate possible.
Compare that to NFL football which has a very restrictive salary cap and you get a scenario where any team in 1-2 years despite how bad they are in a given year with great coaching and a smart draft can get to the superbowl or win it all(see this years Cincinnati Bengals, or last years Buccaneers).
It's not all about the payroll any more. It's about who actually wants a good team and is willing to hire the right people.
The small market excuse is just that, an excuse. The value of the franchises has been exploding. Direct revenue isn't a meaningful constraint on payroll.
I highly doubt this, as a longtime Marlins fan. I strongly suspect that "small market" teams are those owned by people who notoriously don't want to spend more money than they have to.
According to Forbes, the Rays were purchased in 2004 for 200 million and are now worth 1.1B. In 18 years ownership has received a total return of more than 500% on their investment.
Now, for some strange reason, these teams don't want to publish annual audited profit/loss numbers, but the Marlins had those numbers leak for some of the franchise's bleakest years. The leaks showed them making money hand over fist. I suspect the same is true of the Rays during much of the last 18 years. So, you have a profitable business (I speculate) that's also appreciating in value at an incredible rate. Sounds like someone who can afford to pay the people who actually put butts in seats.
It's a funny situation though because having stupendous injections of cash doesn't always pay off. Paris Saint Germain have been profligate in the transfer market and have little to show for it on the European stage (and domestically they didn't even win Ligue 1 last season). And sometimes just a modest investment, raising the wage bill by shrewd signings can really upset things. There was a fairly sizeable backlash at RB Leipzig - a team bought by Red Bull which progressed through the ranks to the top level - suggesting that they'd bought their way to success. Which is true in a sense but in reality everyone who's successful has basically bought that success. Bayern's average salary is 8x that of Leipzig's[0] - as an outsider it seems they were just nervous at the idea of someone upsetting the balance. Right now Leipzig are the fourth-highest wage bill and are fourth in the Bundesliga.
I kinda hope one of these big clubs has a high-profile collapse, it's a shame that it's Barcelona who have come closest because I don't feel too much disdain for them. Scots tend to have a soft-spot for Catalonia :) Interestingly we weren't without our own big-spending-investor stories, Gretna (tiny club from a town of 3,000 people) were bought by a supposed-millionaire who bankrolled them to the top-level, took a turn for the worse, withdrew his support and the club then fell to pieces.
Anyway yet another ramble-y football comment from me, you can tell I hang out with people who do not like the sport :)
[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/675490/average-bundeslig...
(It's notable that teams in capped leagues also do this, most noticeably in the NHL. So the salary cap doesn't solve this problem so much as it redirects revenue from players to owners.)
This is why there should be a salary floor as well as ceiling.
The biggest problem in baseball is you have to maintain a minor league AND a major league. You need younger less expansive players, inexpensive players to fill the roster, and expensive players. Depending on the market you need to either trade your younger talent before it gets expensive (getting younger players from other teams) and be able to develop those players. Or, you have to be able sign high price players and make trades to bring in lesser talented players from other teams to developer your farm system, where you'll often trade your best prospects for older, more expensive players.
Both systems have worked lately. Cleveland has had one of the best records in baseball since 2014, but the Dodgers and Yankees spend and do well.
The larger problem is revenue sharing in MLB. While there is revenue sharing because of the TV contracts, New York, Boston, and LA make a huge amount of money off local TV deals. Cleveland, Tampa, et.al. make a lot less. So, unlike many other sports, revenue is not shared equally and teams need different ways to acquire and use talent.
In the NFL, you need to have a very good QB and you can build a team around them. In the NBA, you need 2-3 very talented players, mid-cost starters to fill your game day rotations and strong reserves to handle injuries and such. Since those leagues share revenue that can implement caps and floors with salary. Sorry, I can't talk about the NHL, I don't understand their business enough.
The bigger problem with the MLB is their lack of equal revenue sharing makes a floor and cap next to impossible to setup. MLB teams simply are not going to put all their money in a big pool and share it.
I'm sure this made sense at the time, but it's super frustrating now living in these neighbourhoods where there's a big park with vast green space that is mostly unused, and the amenities people actually want and use (tennis courts, playground, community garden, skate park, hangout space) shunted to the very edges of the space, and no room for potential alternative uses such as a soccer pitch.
The point is more just that you can't know the future, and any constraint like that should have limitations on it, with an upperbound of something like 99 years. That's more than enough time for your kids, grand kids, and even their kids to all enjoy playing baseball in the park, while not saddling your community with your specific vision of outdoor recreation for all time.
Like sure, the land donation was no doubt generous and appreciated, and the people involved would have foregone a potential payday had they sold it to a developer to be carved up instead. But on the flipside, it was probably also a big tax writeoff, and the city inherited the unbounded future cost of its maintenance, lost tax revenue, and so on.
The steroid scandal, hd TVs, changing media consumption, sabremetrics, rule changes make more sense to me.
0: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183657/average-size-of-a....
1. Better TV slots for good teams – this already happens in every American sports league. Teams with popular star players, teams in big markets and teams performing well get the prime time slots.
2. Easier path to the playoffs for good teams – playoff eligibility is contingent on regular season performance. Why should it be any different? If you are a good team, play like it and earn your spot.
It's a great idea for an OOTP simulation. (OOTP is a highly detailed baseball management simulation game that accommodates things like this)
Baseball is poorly marketed and is extremely slow to change (not always a bad thing). But an XBL, or something like it, would have been a stronger challenger to the MLB than the XFL was to the NFL.
Baseball is vertically integrated, and the talent is mostly controlled immediately.