Assuming we are still in a world where pure madness is not an option (nukes), it is possible Putin will commit to a protracted occupation of Ukraine (years). The west has a, how to put it, a lack of consistent ability to pay attention to a drawn out occupation in a land far far away (that shit might as well be middle earth to us).
Putin has said in his own words that if Russia is to be left out of the world, then why should Russia care what the world thinks?
They will occupy Ukraine for years, maintain and build relations with Iran, Brazil, China, India. The west will go through its own turn over, Trump may run again in 2024. It could be years, the EU could turn right wing. Border states will have to stop being romantic and start really incorporating the half a million Ukrainians (soon to be more, Britain has already Brexited because their population will not tolerate migration. Watch how awful the reality of the refugee crisis will be).
It will be 2032, years later, with new government powers all over the world. It’ll be a changed world, but perhaps not as ‘green’ as people believe. India and China increase their energy demands and Russia is still there to provide it. Like the Taliban, the world may tire of them by then and capitulate. Now they own Ukraine, and have demonstrated an ability to survive isolation.
The game plan may not be shock and awe or nuclear destruction, but a true willingness to simply endure. We are buying the narrative that Putin has lost because the invasion is taking so long, but in reality the whole thing is supposed to be a long drawn out operation. We’ll be tired of hearing about Ukraine in month 2, 3, 4 …. we’ll be exhausted. Reddit front page will be back to mostly cat videos. The window of opportunity is really on Ukraine and the west to do something now, not Russia.
The UN can walk out of the chamber in protest, but cannot even ratify a modest peace keeping force. Not one country dare even send planes to create limited no fly zones over certain places, even Chernobyl. Most of us are not watching the poker hands carefully here. Just because you have two face cards to start with, doesn’t mean the flop won’t be a bunch of 2s and 7 of clubs. The flop is what’s going to get Zelinsky either killed in a air raid or exiled if he is smart.
The modern world is the slow apartheid state of Palestine, the silent destruction of Syria and Yemen, the ignored subjugation of Hong Kong, the forfeited Afghanistan to the Taliban, the tacit acceptance of Khosgi killing in an embassy. The occupation of Ukraine or the valiant liberation of a democratic state? Which of those two fits with all the others?