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Comment by topspin | Hacker News Reader

"Ukraine, unfortunately, cannot win - it already lost, even if Russian forces withdraw this instant."

Ukraine can win, they just can't meet the bulk of Russia's forces head on. They can, however, defeat Russia in time, and with the support of allies that time can be short. If Ukraine comes out of this an EU member then they will have profound and victory that will benefit Ukraine for generations.

This is an opportunity. Putin has rolled the dice and thrown the first punch. Russia needs punishment in the form of military humiliation and Putin has given the West a once in a century moment to deliver exactly that.

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I think people are underestimating Putin and Russia. This is a regime willing to poison dissidents in foreign countries with nerve gas and radioactive isotopes. If you think Russia won’t bring that heavy hand to Ukraine you’re kidding yourself.

My prediction is the West will give material aide, but Ukraine will fall and we’ll enter another Cold War.

To suggest the West will go to war is just wishful thinking. Ukraine will be sacrificed for a temporary and unstable peace in Eastern Europe. Putin called NATO’s bluff and NATO won’t push harder.

indeed.. I think there is a chance Europe will offer air support in Ukraine, and get drawn into this conflict, and thus be at war with Russia. which will mean EU, USA, UK, CAN, AUS .. will be at war with Russia. ie. WWIII.

I see the attack on Ukraine as an existential threat to the West as a whole - and Im probably not the only one asking if maybe its worth risking nuclear conflict. Can we trust Putin with a nuclear arsenal in any case, even if he withdraws ?

It's not really WW3 unless China joins.

"The West" vs. Russia is just a military execution of Russia.

What’s the plan to stop their nukes?

Leave no doubt that MAD still applies.

That reality remains the one means we have of stopping their nukes.

Insane take, the west vs Russia in open confrontation ends in a nuclear winter.

Nothing - as in literally nothing - is worth seriously risking nuclear conflict. I can’t believe intelligent people are even entertaining this thought. The war is a travesty of the highest order, but I fear an existential threat to the West far, far less than the extinguishing of human civilization. Even the worst authoritarian empires, on a multi-generational timescale, can be outlasted. Nuclear war cannot.

well this is what Putin is gambling on - that he is willing to go closer to the nuclear brink and thus will win. That was true a month ago, I'm not sure its true today.

Wars are not decided based on pure logic - we are somewhat intelligent apes, we will risk it all to defend our tribe - particularly if we feel the aggression is unfair and unjustified.

Democracy is worth the risk. Defeating a “superpower” dictatorship is worth the risk.

If the risk is too high, no it is not, almost tautologically so. If nothing is left of humanity but a smoldering crater, then democracy is, and always has been, entirely meaningless. And the survivors (if any) would never forgive us.

Your logic is left over from pre-nuclear times, when it still made sense. As horrifying as it might be be to face this cold, post-nuclear calculus, we must do it to survive as a species. Which is not to say that we should not push back against aggressive dictators — we must, as much as we are able — but conventional warfare between nuclear powers has to forever be off the table.

Rule by a dictatorial kleptocracy renders humanity entirely meaningless. We must always fight against dictatorship and must never let it win. Better dead than yield to dictatorship.

It renders humanity less meaningful for a temporary period of time. Empires and regimes always dissipate eventually. Nuclear annihilation renders humanity meaningless forever. It is an unfathomably selfish preference, especially given that countless humans with meaningful lives have lived under kleptocratic dictatorships. I do not consent to be part of your death wish.

(But I do desperately hope and pray that Ukraine somehow manages to beat Russia back without massive loss of life.)

>>> Nothing - as in literally nothing - is worth seriously risking nuclear conflict.

> If the risk is too high, no it is not

Which shows why your original statement was wrong: It depends on how high the risk is. If the risk is low enough, it may be worth taking.

Remains only to find out exactly how high it is... Which becomes, AFAICS, an investigation into the psyche of Vladimir Putin.

Maybe I was unclear. This is why I used the phrasing "seriously risking".

So "serious" = "high"? Yeah, then of course I agree. The trouble is only determining is the risk high/serious or not.

On the whole, I lean towards Putin not being quite that crazy -- and hey, remember that even the Soviet Union had that ultimate safeguard, officers willing to disobey orders -- so it shouldn't be all that high. But it's hard to say for sure.

> I think there is a chance Europe will offer air support in Ukraine

I was thinking about that. They are now going to deliver some Migs to the Ukrainian army, because their pilots can already operate those. But let's say they don't have enough pilots for that, who is to say who's operating those Migs? Some Polish volunteers that joined the foreign army recently?

Russia also pulled that stunt in the east where Russian "volunteers" are fighting alongside the separatists.

> They are now going to deliver some Migs to the Ukrainian army

No, they aren’t. That now-deleted tweeted from an adviser to European Parliament doesn’t reflect reality, and has been denied by NATO, Poland (who was the one state specifically rumored to be providing planes), and every other source its been attempted to be confirmed with.

damn

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