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Comment by ramesh31 | Hacker News Reader

>Or other reasons: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...

I think there's a far simpler explanation; genocide. Putin has been throwing Chechen conscripts into this meatgrinder at a pace which shows he has zero issues whatsoever with any level of casualties. The losses are a feature, not a bug. This is Russia, not Iran. They have reserves of over 10 million troops to call on, and the worlds largest inventory of military equipment. He knows he can just throw bodies at this and avoid losing the expensive aircraft and pilots he will need for his coming showdown with NATO.

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Okay, by trying to operate all that (mostly incredibly crappy) equipment and massive conscript reserves in a hostile country all at once means just burning up your fuel and food much faster, leaving your equipment stranded and your soldiers deserting. You wouldn’t think logistics would be a problem just 100 or 200 miles away from your own de facto borders, but here we are.

I’m sure Ukraine appreciates all the weapons Russia is donating to them, though.

>Okay, by trying to operate all that (mostly incredibly crappy) equipment and massive conscript reserves in a hostile country all at once means just burning up your fuel and food much faster

Russia has unlimited food and fuel. And their capture of Ukraine will only solidify that. Soldiers and tanks are cheap. Su-57's and pilots are not.

>You wouldn’t think logistics would be a problem just 100 or 200 miles away from your own de facto borders, but here we are.

This is week 1 of an invasion that is going to last for years. Moving that kind of tonnage just physically takes time no matter what.

I doubt the Russian economy will last for months without a complete collapse, much less years.

> I’m sure Ukraine appreciates all the weapons Russia is donating to them, though.

Some Ukrainian bureaucrat with a sense of humor has done their part to declare the acquisition of Russian tanks and equipment is not a taxable event: https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/804441.html

> the worlds largest inventory of military equipment.

I think the proper word is scrapeyard. The equipment does not work.

Yes there are many Chechens in Ukraine and you are right that they basically want to get rid of them but there are also many Russians. The regime simply does not care for the lives of people.

> Yes there are many Chechens in Ukraine and you are right that they basically want to get rid of them but there are also many Russians. The regime simply does not care for the lives of people.

https://youtu.be/-pBh7bOvcBQ?t=247

We are officially in a clown timeline.

> I think there's a far simpler explanation; genocide.

I don't think so.

I'm seeing estimates of 120-150k Russian troops deployed in Ukraine from sources like the Ukrainian government and the Pentagon. Outside of Russian propaganda, the estimates range from 10-12k range for Chechen fighters. The 10k number came from Chechen leadership. These numbers don't support the notion that Chechens are doing the bulk of the fighting or dying in Ukraine.

Moreover, the only reports of engagement with Chechen forces are in regard to the elimination of a special forces unit tasked with assassinating Zelensky. Russians are using the image of Chechens as fierce, brutal, battle-hardened fighters in an attempt to demoralize Ukrainians. If Chechens were doing a significant share of the fighting it would all over the news. Ukraine would capitalize on this as well to rally the populace against the "Putin's vicious Chechen mercenaries".

>I'm seeing estimates of 120-150k Russian troops deployed in Ukraine from sources like the Ukrainian government and the Pentagon. Outside of Russian propaganda, the estimates range from 10-12k range for Chechen fighters. The 10k number came from Chechen leadership. These numbers don't support the notion that Chechens are doing the bulk of the fighting or dying in Ukraine.

There's a 10:1 ratio of logistical units to front line fighters for any modern military. The Chechen units are 100% light infantry.

The only way he could have 10 million is if he starts drafting, I believe that the military of Russia has ~1.1 million members

Makes sense but there's a resource that's running out much faster for Putin, popular support.

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