Hacker News Reader

Comment by hgomersall | Hacker News Reader

I still can't see how (b) doesn't still lead to (c). He needs to control the security apparatus, and that means essentially being an occupying force. It's not like the Ukrainians have not already have their security trampled all over already, so the usual limits on a popular uprising are gone already.

View on HN

You have no idea about the darkness and effectiveness of modern tyranny. Russia is pretty much North Korea in democracy at this point or they will become so very soon.

Putin wants the sanctions to be over. His next move will be to create devastation in Ukraine and hold civilians as hostages for the lifting of the sanctions.

In anycase, Russia will controll South of Ukraine, link up with Transnistria and even if they don't take Kyiev and don't force Kyiev into peace negociations, the will secure such a strong position that absolute control won't matter

That's insightful and cynic. Possibly right too.

But why "modern tyranny"? Wars like that are not a novelty... or is it about taking civilians as hostages?

Because with modern technology oppression is a lot more efficient than before. Not says that it was not in thr past.

If Russia manages to occupy Ukraine through repressions then wouldn't this invite Chechnya 2.0, but with 30x the people? Can the Russian state even survive something like that?

Yes it would, but those able to would eventually leave the country and those peope left will tire out, run out of money and will. I don't know what Putin thinks at this stage, I think he desperately needs a win to restore some credibility back home.

I'd say he's going to invade Moldova in the next few days (once Odessa is taken) and make a big show of how easily they took it to restore morale, and very soon after they're going to plunge in Ukraine's back and make a big push for Kyiev.

I think they might abandon installing a puppet government, but in that case they will bring devastation to Ukraine and keep the whole Black Sea coast, and just let Ucraine fester.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com