Plenty of people call for NATO enforcing no-fly-zone over Ukraine, including Ukrainian president.
for my entire life, the media has portrayed him as either an evil genius or a mad-man (sometimes, both). in any case, it's painted a picture of a man perfectly capable of taking everyone down with him. why should i think otherwise?
note: i am being completely earnest in this response. in the last week, i have thrown up several times post doom-scrolling on twitter. i had to delete the app. i am convinced this will end up with everyone in dust. my mind has reverted to the following quote from The Wasteland several times:
<< "And I will show you something different from either
<< Your shadow at morning striding behind you
<< Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
<< I will show you fear in a handful of dust."
He might use nukes just because he's loosing in Ukraine.
He might use them at any point because he already feels threatened.
He might use them because he had a bad dream.
How can we take any of this into account?
The only thing we can do is to choose the fiction we believe in.
And I think correct fiction to believe in is the one that Putin won't use too many nukes if NATO won't cross Russia borders and clearly advertises that intent.
And if Putin really uses some nukes (probably against military targets in Ukraine) and NATO won't respond with their nukes, just with conventional means, nuclear restraint won't be broken, by anyone except a clear madman
The problem with this approach is that in every future conflict this argument will be in play and so in every future conflict there is no plausible way to finish the conflict other than let the aggressor roll with it.
This might be the first time when a nuclear weapon is used offensively without being fired.
And no, of course we don't have any guarantees either way. But just like Putin puts his troops in Ukraine and says "what are you going to do about it", I believe we should do the same thing back - impose a no fly zone above Ukraine and call his idiotic bluff, he knows what attacking NATO would mean for him too.