Comment by Borrible | Hacker News Reader

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Comment by Borrible | Hacker News Reader

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The Russian have been preparing for years, so what kind of highly unlikely?

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info...

https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping...

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat...

https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra...

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group...

https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...

I think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA

In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling.

The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.

You are probably right. Considering the piss poor performance of the Russian military, supporting the Russian Blood Brothers on the front line is probably a sacred duty for nationalistic Serbian extremists.

Apparently, the Russians even need external experts for their war crimes, as they recruit war-experienced Syrians as mercenaries. I assume that the Serbian experts in this field will work for Mother Russia for free. This will probably relieve B&H from that pest, temporarily. Until those fighters return. Of course, If they do. Wouldn't mind to see them die there.

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