Put another way, I only plan to keep the car to around 100,000 miles. If the hybrid cost more than $1717 above the standard, I'm losing out.
Put me in the hybrids are hype column.
In some ways, hybrids are large-scale social/economic insurance. If gas prices really spike, consumers will have a (relatively) rapid substitution for conventional cars.
Plus, a lot of people claim to care about the environment. At least cars offer a modestly tangible way normal people in normal circumstances can show whether they actually do enough to spend modestly more to do some minor good for said environment.
Plus (part two) a lot of jingoistic America-first types can decide whether they really want to help stick it to those people who jingoistic types don't like but who are selling lots of oil or whether those jingoistic types are all hat and no cattle. I find the number of people who favor or favored U.S. intervention in Iraq but who drive pickup trucks to be somewhat puzzling.
When we needed a second car last year, I went for a VW Jetta TDI, and it has been a very good decision. The car averages 34 MPG with my mixed highway and arterial road commute.
But, let's say in 2008 you thought that hybrids were all hype and bought a Corolla instead. According to KBB, you paid $16000 for your Corolla and I paid $23000 for my Prius. My Prius is now worth $15000, so I lost $8000 to depreciation. But your Corolla is now worth $9500, so you lost $6500. The difference in the depreciation numbers is about the same ratio as the difference in initial price, so the argument isn't really against hybrids, per say, but that when you pay more for a car, you lose more in depreciation.
Of course, in 3+ years I've probably saved a couple grand in gas, which pushes my operating costs _below_ yours, even though you bought a very cheap, economical car and didn't buy into all the hybrid hype.
And as to battery pack replacement... well, who knows. But there are plenty of original Priuses on the road right now on the original packs; which makes them over 10 years old. It's just a maintenance cost. When a car is 10 years old, you pay a lot for maintenance. Replacing a timing belt is not cheap either!