Maybe someone can enlighten me, but is this not the equivalent of saying "You can't fire me - I quit"? Are there any practical consequences from this besides symbolism?
- Wheat exports: 17.6% of the global wheat exports are from Russia, 8% are from Ukraine which may fall under Russia control. [1]
- Potash exports (fertilizer): Russia and Belarus and #2 and #3 in global exports of potash. [2]
- Gas: Russia supplies roughly 40% of the EU's gas [3]
[1] https://www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-exports-country/
[2] https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-minin...
[3] https://fortune.com/2022/03/08/eu-russian-gas-supply-wean-bl...
The headline of this article is untrue, evidenced even by the article itself. The one quote they provide from Russia is, "These measures are a logical response to those imposed against Russia and are aimed at ensuring uninterrupted functioning of key sectors of the economy." And look at the industries where exports are being restricted: telecom, medical, auto, agricultural, electrical + tech.
Russia is ensuring they have sufficient domestic supplies such that the impact of the sanctions on people's day to day necessities is minimal.
For one thing, the stuff that they export will often not be a good match for needs, and it will be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Re-organizing their economy to adapt to the sanctions and achieve something like self sufficiency (with the help of Chinese trade) will be an enormous task.
Russia is the third biggest supplier of nickel, and iirc the biggest supplier of high grade nickel- a key component in many applications, not the least of which is in lithium batteries.
London recently had to suspend nickel trading because the price was astronomically high. There will be no getting off of fossil fuels without nickel, and not anytime remotely soon without Russian nickel.
By the time you're halfway done, we'll be importing from the Russians again and the investment will collapse.
Chinese owned LME suspended Nickel trading because: "China's Tsingshan Holding Group, one of the world's top nickel and stainless steel producers, had been building a short position in nickel since last year, betting prices would fall, three sources familiar with the matter said."
It was a short squeeze and Chinese company was about to lose a shitton of money so they closed the market to cover their own.
> Russia produces 50 million tons of fertilizers every year, 13 percent of the world's total. The country is a major exporter of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-containing fertilizers, all of which are major crop and soil nutrients.
Source: https://southeastagnet.com/2022/03/07/russian-ministry-recom...
> The recent gas price 'confrontations' that Russia engineered with the Ukraine and Belarus have exacerbated European concerns in respect of energy supply security.
https://archive.nordregio.se/en/Metameny/About-Nordregio/Jou...
Besides, the EU presented the plan to get rid of the RU gas dependency:
https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/8/22967244/european-union-ru...
That's not to say russian doesn't need money, but this isn't that kind of war... at this point.
Degraded capacity and suffering of the Russian people, mostly. The consumables they can build they will, everything else will get used up in the hope that the war is won before the capacity to fight it is fully degraded, and that once there is a fair accompli in Ukraine, a sufficient subset of the world will see no point in further sanctions and they’ll be able to use the expanded economic power from their victory to build back.
(I don't think it's a good plan, but it's all they have left.)
Not to mention Russian gas is 30% of EU gas (on average), so it would be a crunch but not a cut-off
Unless they would like the Ruble going even lower.
By the way, the countries we'll be buying from are not much nicer than Putin's Russia (some of them maybe even less so) but at least they are smaller and hopefully more manageable. The next one to cut ties with should be China but that's a giant rope to undo.
[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/europe-plans-to-slash-r...
Only a few european countries rely heavily on russian gas (on the top of my head, germany and italy).
It wouldn't be fun, but we can heavily invest in converting heating systems, and turn off some electricity sinks (industrial equipment, etc). Make the grid smarter to turn off equipment when demand is high.
Meanwhile, accelerate the deployment of alternative energy sources, storage, and diversify hydrocarbon procurement sources.
Basically what should have been done progressively, not that it wasn't called out. Both reducing reliance on Russia and phasing out carbon-intensive energy sources. It's mind-blowing that we made no progress on these, and now it looks like germany is doubling down on it.
I’ve purchased Baltic Birch plywood before that turned out to be manufactured in Russia. I’m not sure if that’s included under forestry product ban, but it would further impact pricing of sheet goods.
With that said, if Russia were to ban the export of specific metals (e.g. nickel), that would create chaos for auto manufacturers.
I think this is a poor analogy.
(For context: I despise this aggressive Russian government.)
Ukraine was pretty much written off for this season, but Russia shutting off grain exports is going to make things worse. However, it's yet another loss of income for them when they've already lost most of their oil/gas export income. My guess is that the grain and corn will go to China.
The US pays a lot of farmers to sit on their asses, so there's plenty of capacity; if the federal government acts fast and farmers are smart...
They generate a quarter of the grain export. That's a very important difference. Russia stopping wheat exports would be a very bad thing, but it's not nearly as catastrophic as some present it to be.
They're going to be highly receptive to Russia's suggestions politically.
Look at the countries that have abstained in the UN votes...