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I hate Russia’s war as much as anyone, but McDonald withdrawing from a country is not in itself a message that can’t be ignored or turned around.

To put things in perspective, in an unrelated case Meta raised a risk of withdrawing from EU depending on the sanctions they face, and the general opinion on that hasn’t been to lament the EU governance.

I’m willing to bet the farm that the Rubble falling down and the direct financial sanctions leading to restricted access to deposits have far more psychological impacts than McDonald’s and Coca Cola (did Coca Cola actually withdraw from Russia ? I thought the local bottling company was still doing business)

Let's make it more concrete: the elephant in the room here is Apple and Google (android).

Samsung and Xiaomi are the elephants in that room. Google and Apple are comparatively minor players in Russian handset sales.

The devices don't work without OS

Neither Samsung nor Xiaomi need Google to ship android devices.

Play Store/Google Services presence is a big plus, but if the choice is between not shipping the phones or shipping without Play Store, I’m sure the decision will be simple (at least for Xiaomi, I’d see Samsung more open to take a stand against Russia)

So here's the thing: a huge amount of Europeans don't really like Meta, and realize it's a highly substitute-able thing.

McDonalds in Russia is...kind of a big deal. It's a giant billboard that Russia is open and participates in the global economy, and the wealth and opportunity that brings. Americans don't see it because they were never that cut off, but for anyone behind the iron curtain the whole concept is still a sign that they had left an age of rationing, empty shelves and unavailable produce.

If you're a young person in Russia today, you have probably heard stories from your parents about when their wasn't McDonalds, or supermarkets which had things. The big mark of stuff getting better after the cold war the influx of the American brands, and the massive luxuries they brought in.

This is a cultural perspective that's hard to communicate, but Russia - well the USSR - used to have exactly one McDonalds - which opened in 1990 in Moscow[1], and parents would save for months to be able to afford to take their children there. The people who lived through that time are still alive.

[1] https://www.boredpanda.com/first-mcdonald-restaurant-opens-s...

I think you are ovestating things. Yes, this was true in the 1990s, when McDonalds was one of the few windows into what western capitalism has to offer, but this magic of novelty is long gone. Right now McDonalds is, like in the rest of the world, just a place where you can grab food of predictable shitty quality when you are low on time and money (though indeed often the primary choice).

The only message these sanctions are generate is more hate towards the west. People in the west think that most Russians appreciate the attitude of the west towards Russia. In fact it's the total opposite. Not entirely strange, since a lot of people feel the effect of sanctions for a long time. The current sanctions will not result in hate towards the Russian government, but more hate towards us the west.

There’s no cure for stupidity but any thinking Russian will place the blame for the sanctions upon Putin, as there’s a clear cause and effect involved. Russia invaded Ukraine, then vast numbers of companies left Russia and the economy collapsed.

Propaganda works based on simple logic, be it truth or lies, and this simple truth is a lot more believable than the “Russian invaded Ukraine to rid it of neo-nazis” narrative that the Kremlin is trying to push.

That is probably true but it's also true that throughout history, peoples tend to support their government when their lives are good/improving in general, regardless of what the government stands for otherwise.

If your country was at war with another country, you would not be doing business with them. The effects would be indistinguishable from sanctions.

This is war. It's just one we're the western powers are pretending they are not at war with Russia. And for good reasons.

People in the US are too used to being able to wield such an asymmetrical power, namely the ability to just respond to violence with violence without really worrying about the consequences (and some people even threat to "just nuke them" etc).

However here the opponent is a nuclear power, and one that can employ an effective madman strategy.

I don't think these sanctions are designed to apply western soft power. They are a desperate act of war a response to Russian aggression.

>The current sanctions will not result in hate towards the Russian government, but more hate towards us the west.

In U.S. election seasons, there's a common saying: "It's the economy, stupid."

Meaning, the more people feel economic pain, the less they support incumbent candidates. Regardless to whether that incumbent has any control over the economy. The candidates who win elections through scapegoats are usually challengers, and they like to include incumbents among the goat herd.

I'd like to think the Russian people are similar to Western citizens. And when the war-time surge of nationalism starts to ebb, they'll blame the people in charge for how bad everything is.

> tough to explain McDonald's and Coca Cola, both profit seeking companies, voluntarily choosing to withdraw operations from their country.

It's not: Sanctions from "the west" have crashed the ruble... profit seeking companies can no longer make profit, and have to close.

I'm not convinced these companies are leaving on moral grounds. Purely the currency crash.

The currency crash doesn't need to impact them. They can just raise prices. If your theory were correct, McDonald's wouldn't still be paying their employees, but they are. It's very clearly a moral, or at least reputational, choice.

They can't stop paying them from one day to the other. If they want to keep it legal, they need to continue paying for some legally mandated period.

Just curious, how come McD is still open in Saudi Arabia, the country that routinely commits war crimes in Yemen and setting new records in mass beheading (yesterday's number was 81). Seems that "reputation" thing is more sophisticated than previously thought

Because there isn't the same kind of social pressure for them not to be. Pretty straightforward.

I’d happily keep paying my staff in ruble… that is an inconsequential cost compared to importing anything into the country.

Not clearly a moral choice at all.

Great perspective, never thought of that, makes sense to me.

Russian propaganda will tell people "see, the West wants us suffer, this means we're are right". Those who support this regime cannot connect cause and effect, even in total poverty they will still think "Putin good West bad". Don't overestimate intellectual ability of an average TV consumer.

Sanctions deal more damage to those who are trying to flee the country, leaving everything behind with no VISA/MasterCard and no hope for acceptance in other countries based on nationality.

I believe Russian propaganda is a bit more sophisticated than that. It will be more like:

"Western countries aren't sanctioned for their war crimes. Hence sanctions are only siege warfare against Russia."

To me, it seems more like "throw everything on the wall and see what sticks".

Have you listened to Russian media?

I mean here stuff said towards western media and toward western politicians and public.

I do read accounts of people who were/are in Russia or Ukraine, reported from Russia for years and interview with Russians who run away. The latter includes journalists and activity that concluded regime became too dangerous for them finally.

The messaging toward west, toward Ukraine and toward Russians are three different messagings.

> they will still think "Putin good West bad". Don't overestimate intellectual ability of an average TV consumer.

Most Western world TV consumers are probably thinking right now: "Putin bad, West good". We blame others but we make the same mistakes over and over.

"The sanctions have already had a profound impact on the market valuations of Russian companies"

And all that means is that somebody else can pick up the physical capital for next to nothing. Which is what the nationalisation process Putin announced allows. Essentially if the West pulls out, then the Russians will confiscate everything physical and carry on producing in the same way. All that is lost is the monetary value extraction to the West, which is then diverted to the Russian Treasury.

"Their ability to conduct a military campaign is going to be severely limited by the lack of available inputs and capital as well, in a mechanical way."

How is it? What are the Russians, Russia being a country that can put people on the International Space Station, lacking in physical terms? They always have as much money as they require because they have their own currency and it has a floating exchange rate which means that it always circulates within the Russian currency area no matter what.

That means Russia can provide whatever liquidity is required to allow internal production to continue, and the Russian tax system - which requires payment in rubles - can be relied upon to drive the system.

Russia doesn't need up to date Western equipment. Guns and bullets made 1980s style will still kill people very effectively.

So they have all the available physical inputs, and all the necessary physical capital. Monetary capital is never an issue in a nation with its own currency. Plus if the West doesn't want Russia's exports, they can move people from that industry to the War Machine.

The only people that lose there is the West. Less natural resources in circulation, higher prices, less output. China, on the other hand, gets an energy discount which will be reflected in the cost of Chinese output.

I doubt very much that sanctions will impede the Russians. What it may do is get the West to re-evaluate what they believe. In particular whether 'the mighty dollar' really is that mighty after all.

What people seem to forget is that the value of the ruble in US dollars is utterly irrelevant to Russians in Russia. The price of their bread in rubles is unlike to change because of it, nor is the availability of that bread.

If we want to stop Russia, we have to put boots on the ground. I'm not sure the West is ready to face up to that uncomfortable truth.

> Russia doesn't need up to date Western equipment. Guns and bullets made 1980s style will still kill people very effectively.

What about planes? Helicopters? SAMs? Drones? India has cancelled their order of MiG-29s - it seems unlikely this is because of pro-Ukraine sentiment. It could be because they no longer have confidence in the performance of MiG-29s. But most likely it is because India does not believe Russia will be able to manufacture those planes as a result of sanctions. Guns, bullets, tanks, APCs, artillery - these Russia may be able to continue to produce. But these alone are not enough to win a war against another nation-state.

Russia is a country that builds rocket engines and exports machine tools

They ship these things to Turkey to help build nuclear power plants. https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/145486/

The idea that a country like Russia cannot make mere aircraft - particularly once it suspends enforcement of the West's patents and copyright - is likely wishful thinking.

Yet Russia has to come crawling to China for parts for airlines - who has refused to provide them.[0]

Modern aircraft are rife with specialised electronics - where is Russia going to get them?

Perhaps Russia will be able to build fighters up to the standards of the 1980s. But sanctions will cripple its ability to build modern fighters.

Another matter entirely will be Russia's ability to find engineers who are able to design military hardware for them. They had already been suffering brain drain prior to the invasion and sanctions, and currently there is a flood of emigration. Not just to the West, but even places like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Flights from Moscow to Tbilisi reached almost $2k.

True, bread and housing will be just as available and affordable to a Russian engineer. But if he wishes for any of the comforts of the West, those will be unavailable to him. And not to mention income - for instance, Roscosmos engineers before the invasion supposedly made only around $10k a year.

[0]: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sa...

The sentiment is that "these companies are using our friendly disposition to try and force us do things for them in a pathetic fashion, by throwing a fit".

All that attitude does is that it puts the potential neutrals in Russia on Putin's side, after all the West is the side that has taken Coca Cola and bank credits and Big Macs out of their reach, why should they side with the Russians that approve of those people? at the limit they're traitors.

The West will learn about the futility of all this pretty soon, but I doubt they'll change course, it's too late now, it will mean showing that "Putin has won".

Who are potential neutral? Why would those be useful to anyone? Russians by large stand by Putin or think Ukraine deserve it. That is with or without sanctions.

Sanctions don't have potential to make Russians more passive or less likely to protest, because that society haven't done that for years.

Putin cracked down on internal opposition years ago. That included murders of Russians. This is not the first war Russia is in either. And not much opposition was visible whole time.

I suspect not everyone in Russia is either pro-Putin or anti-Putin, as in most other polities, for that matter. That's why I think this premise:

> Russians by large stand by Putin or think Ukraine deserve it. That is with or without sanctions.

is false, or used to be false before these sanctions were implemented.

The Ukraine was either not mentioned in news or willified as nazi. And not just for few days. That was Russian media before invasion. There was Russian evacuation of Donbas all over Russian news to supposedly protect civilians from Ukrainian nazi. Because Ukrainiane apparently decided to attack Russians exactly as Russian army was amassing at that exact border.

No other opinion is even legal now, there is 15 years imprisonment for that and independent media are closed. Russians who have Ukrainien families refuse to believe them even as their are getting pictures of basement living.

This premise of support for Putin is what people/journalists stationed in Russia reports. Before they left, because it is not safe anymore. People who reported on Russia for years, including in runup toward this war. Including during previous wars and whose past reporting turned out ok.

The war in Ukraine is result of long term process. The opposition, civil rights groups and what not were dismantled or weakened as part of that process.