Ok?
1. That’s his job as an investor. Getting one big outlier prediction right makes up for a hundred wrong ones.
2. These predictions tend to provoke interesting debates(that’s probably Sama’s intent here).
1. That’s his job as an investor. Getting one big outlier prediction right makes up for a hundred wrong ones.
2. These predictions tend to provoke interesting debates(that’s probably Sama’s intent here).
But he's not acting as an investor here. He's acting as an influencer on Twitter. And when a public figure consistently makes poor predictions, I think they should be called out for it.
It’s the equivalent of a painter doodling in his notebook. Some of them will turn into paintings.
2. There’s so many better ways to spark an interesting conversation than throw bs predictions out on Twitter. If his opinion was informed with facts, he could write a blog or (heavens forbid) a Twitter thread detailing what lead him to the conclusion.
- altman's paradox
however unlike in his job as an investor when he makes stupid takes on twitter he isn't going to lose 100k each time. If he did he would probably vet his tweets a bit more.
The reason markets work and Twitter doesn't is because there's no negative consequences for posting without thinking.