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Comment by BitwiseFool | Hacker News Reader

I wonder if OneWeb has no other choice. I'm sure executives at SpaceX realize that Starlink would be the superior product and they don't stand to lose that many potential customers to OneWeb. I bet they figure they can make more money from the launch costs than potential impact of competition from OneWeb.

I also wonder if this will end up helping OneWeb. I can't imagine using Soyuz 2.1 rockets is cheaper than paying for reusable Falcon 9's.

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The only other affordable choice could have been ISRO with PSLV , there was some merits to this as oneweb is owned partly by Bharti an Indian telecom major.

However that was always a long shot, Russia collaborates deeply on the Indian space and missile programs. The cryogenic 4th stage is still a Russian engine on GSLV, ISRO won’t likely risk that partnership as America has always refused any tech because of dual concerns, and ISRO also is not very expandable on launch capacity so it would not be easy even if they wanted to.

They might have been able to get a launch or 2 out of ISRO but they don't have the capacity to build rockets that fast.

Looking at the launch rates of Indian rockets, its pretty easy to realize that they have no way to simply launch more. They build rockets for specific project and have very low launch rates.

They can't simply build 6 extra rockets in a few years.

I agree they cannot expand that much that fast, which was my second point.

They wouldn't be very keen either way, as ISRO's primary objective is their research missions while there is some drive to have commercial operations it is not that important to them.

However it was also possible that Bharti (and U.K. government ) could have pulled enough strings to get ISRO to agree, so won't have been that surprised if they had partnered.

If OneWeb wins, SpaceX makes a ton of money launching for them, and doesn't have to bother running an internet company.

I wonder to what degree satellite internet is winner-takes-all.

They are competing for customers but, at least last I checked, they weren't putting a ton of bandwidth into orbit (compared to existing land based stuff). Maybe they'll both end up just selling as much as they can produce.

It's probably less winner-takes-all than ground based internet. At scale, putting infrastructure into space is a much lower barrier to entry than putting a fiber line into every household.

The limiting factor will be spectrum allocations. You only have so much bandwidth per area, giving an advantage to those that either have more directional antennas or more spectrum available.

Fiber to the home doesn't have any technical barriers, but localized corruption creates massive barriers to entry. (It's much easier to do fiber to the home in rural areas than in US metros)

Satellite internet has the opposite problem. If it ends up winning it will be a testament to dysfunctional governments around the world.

And if OneWeb fails, SpaceX still made good money launching them. And if OneWeb is kind of successful and a duopoly between StarLink and OneWeb develops, SpaceX makes money from both companies.

Selling shovels is a great strategy, even if you own a gold mine.

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