Ask HN: How to find out about nuclear war? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: How to find out about nuclear war?

Say Putin decides to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine. I'd like to know as soon as possible--ideally within a minute. Is there a service, watchdog, NGO, etc. out there that monitors for this sort of thing and would give speedy notice? I couldn't find one.

I know about emergency alerts on phones in the U.S., but who knows how long it would take to get one of those (or even if .gov would decide to use it in the case of a single tactical nuke in a far-away land).

I'm also sure I could monitor Twitter / Telegram / Discord / MySpace, but I don't want to have to monitor anything. I want to get an alert as soon as possible after $EVENT == 1.

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> I know about emergency alerts on phones in the U.S., but who knows how long it would take to get one of those

I wouldn't be so dismissive - your country has an alert system and more information than you can ever gather and filter by yourself - what more do you possibly expect? Like, what would be an ideal answer to this question that can potentially be an improvement over the national emergency alert system? It looks like you're asking for a solution to a solved problem.

I think the disconnect between us here is whether the system would get used. I want to know about a tactical nuclear attack half a world away, which in and of itself is not a direct threat to the U.S.

The question in my mind isn't, "Does the alert system work?" it's, "Would I get the information I want via the alert system?"

It's 100% not clear to me that the U.S. emergency alert system gets activated in the case of a tactical nuclear attack in Ukraine. Of course, if people have reason to think it goes one way or the other I'm all ears...!

Oh, I see. If the US isn't being attacked, I don't expect you to be notified through the emergency system because for you it's not an emergency. In that case what's the problem with waiting for official government sources and news etc to pick it up? Why do you need instant notification? Even if you find out super fast, it's not like you can do anything about it in those extra few minutes that you have the information.

To stylize, it's a situation where the risk of a limited or full exchange (i.e., nukes hit the U.S.) goes from very low (0.01% per year?) to low (2% per year?). I've got the resources to hedge that catastrophic 2% risk by going to stay at a family place in the countryside, and it's nice there to boot. So why not do it?

The worry is many other people will have a similar idea, and getting out of the city will become slow and difficult. In the case where a strike in Ukraine results in quick escalation to some sort of exchange, you've got maybe an hour tops (I think flight time for ICBMs is ~25 minutes, but figure there's some decision-making time plus population centers are secondary targets).

This seems like a variant of trying to time the market. If you really believe the risk of nuclear war is elevated and you have a contingency plan to go live in a safer place, do it. Don't try to beat the general public by five minutes. What happens then if you get the alert, but you're in the middle of taking a crap, a shower, your phone happened to be a different room, you're driving through a tunnel, or you're more than five minutes from your house anyway? Are you really in a position to respond within five minutes 24/7/365?

Yeah, I'm not sure what action you would take with this information. Especially given the specific scenario of a tactical nuke used half a world away. Certainly, that's a profound change in the state of nuclear war, but what is there for an average person to do about it?

Somewhat more actionable is if the situation escalates from there towards MAD, and you might want to head to your bunker or what have you; but if you plan to make peace with your estranged family in the event, do it now. If you plan to go stockpile supplies, do it now. If you plan to build a fallout shelter, it's probably a little late, construction is expensive and slow now, but maybe you can get a dirt delivery to enhance the survive-ability of a structure you already have.

The idea is that getting the information 5-15 minutes before everyone else could make it much easier to get out of a population center and then live. I already have a place to go in the countryside.

If your "flee-the-city" condition is Putin uses 1-3 tactical nukes in Ukraine, you've probably got an hour until population centers start getting hit if things move quickly.

I'm not sure I understand. Why would someone dismiss a plan that they think is generally solid and doesn't have a large cost, just because it fails in a few edge cases (bathroom, etc.)? Seems like this is strictly about getting access to more information to increase your chances of a good outcome (even though it doesn't guarantee it).

If the idea is that 5 minutes isn't enough time to beat the traffic -- well, yeah, could be, but that also depends on where you live.

Yeah, this is where I'm coming from. If, conditional on an exchange actually happening, having this information increases my likelihood of survival to three weeks afterwards by some substantial amount in expectation, that's fine and totally worth it.

Nuclear war really is the new ‘Is Yellowstone about to erupt?’ now days huh? You are partaking in Armageddon fantasies, a guilty pleasure of many.

You can be sure that HN will be flooded with reposts about the event, just as it is every time github, Reddit, or iCloud has a hiccup. The front page will comprise 32 near-identical headlines posted with 1 minute of each other as users vie to get the most karma by being the “frist psot.” It’s as inevitable as spam.

I live in a rural area where we figure it would take at least a day for fallout to reach us. Our plan then is to go to the gas station and buy all the Budweiser we can. (ok... bottled water and soda too.)

> Our plan then is to go to the gas station and buy

So will everyone else, good luck.

I think I'll be there first.

Isn’t this the root of what OP is getting at?

Why do you think you’ll be first? (How) can someone else get that confidence?

Would earthquake monitoring systems pick up a nuclear blast?

They do detect underground blasts, and they would probably detect a surface-level explosion as well. The Air Force Technical Applications Center looks at some of that data to determine if a nuclear bomb went off

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Force_Technical_Applicatio...

Seismic waves only propagate at up to ~14 km/s. If New York is bombed, it would take ~5 minutes (I think) for the wave to reach Los Angeles. Twitter would be much faster (assuming Twitter survives the attack).

This is also an interesting point! I assume there's a network of monitoring stations all over the world which are hooked up to the internet & other modes of speed-of-light communication.

https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~richards/my_papers/Richards&K...

https://www.ctbto.org/verification-regime/monitoring-technol...

I can't figure out how to get their data in real time and set up push alerts, though...!

> Would earthquake monitoring systems pick up a nuclear blast?

Yes, but the operator probably wouldn't identify and publish that it was a nuclear blast “within a minute” as the OP desires.

Interesting thought! My guess is that it would depend on the size of the blast. I can imagine a scenario where Putin uses one (or a few) dial-a-yield type warheads turned all the way down. The point isn't to blow stuff up, it's to clearly communicate "I am willing to use nuclear weapons".

In that scenario, would a few kt be enough to set off sensors / be distinguishable from noise? I don't know.

Still, a very good idea and worth looking in to.

If you preorder my subscription system for 10$/month I will build this and guarantee you don't die my friend

Where do I sign???

Twitter. My bet is Twitter being the fastest propagation of information given you actively look for it.

I agree it's a good source, but yeah--I don't want to actively look for it. I could probably set up some sort of twitter-monitor that would ping me if certain accounts used the words "nuclear" and "strike" and "breaking" or something.

if (Russian use of nuclear weapons is all over the news)

|| (all news sources and the internet itself seem to be offline) {

  initiate_use_of_nuclear_weapons_contingency();

}

In all seriousness, if that happens it's not something that can be concealed and it will be all over the news.

Yep, you're right! But say you live in a city, and say your plans involve fleeing said city...finding out five minutes before everyone else could make the difference between clear roads and gridlock.

TCP over carrier pigeons

That's for afterwards

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