But not in the way they wanted, I'm sure. The ads are supposed to inspire consumers to reconnect with the brand, rather than be a couple of slightly amusing odd couple skits.
Microsoft didn't need a typical ad OR a bad ad. They needed a good campaign. They got a bad one.
It's different, and only time will tell for sure, but I think it's possible that we're witnessing the beginning of a campaign that people will be studying in marketing schools for decades. I'm not sure if it will go down as genius or hubris, but you're definitely wrong in writing them off at this point.
The only bad publicity is your obituary.
I think that it's POSSIBLE that what you say is true. However, I don't believe that it's very LIKELY. The fact that Microsoft only put out two Seinfeld ads is a sign that things may not be working out well for them, after all. However, I won't roundly mark it a failure yet.
Whatever the third ad is, it had to have entered the planning stage before the Seinfeld ads even aired.