I personally believe there's a boundary between realistic thinking and conspiratorial thinking, and it centers around the level of certainty that there is a totalizing controlling force (be it a single person or a committee) who is exercising complete influence over something.
In short: if being against trans women competing in women's sports is an insta ban, why can I immediately find large Reddit threads with people with plenty of upvotes who do think they should be banned? If saying that Russia will be successful in invading Ukraine is an insta ban, why can I find large threads with upvoted people saying it will? One can find situations where people with those opinions are downvoted or banned, but nonetheless there are enough people who remain to make it unlikely that there is a systemic and effective controlling force.