We're nearing a recession, if this always-accurate indicator is right again

The country is caught in a cleft stick. To kill off inflation, the interest has to rise quite substantially (several per cent at least). But if the interest rate rises, the country can't afford to pay it. (2% rise in interest rate on $30 trillion means an increase in the interest bill of $600 billion - roughly the size of the defense allocation.)

"The bond market just flashed a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: an inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve"

As I understand it, this signal comes from investors as they shift to bonds (from short term gains in stocks) I just wonder if it's the recent excess liquidity/capital in the system pushing investors to diversify into bonds, for example:

Junk Bond Market Soars to New Record as Excess Liquidity Prompts Investors to Seek Higher Yields https://thedeepdive.ca/us-junk-bond-market-soars-to-new-reco...