> The trajectory of progress gives evidence that it is in fact possible and likely

100% disagree. In fact, I'd argue that the opposite is often true, where you see initially a fast rate of progress that results in diminishing returns over time. It's like estimating that a kid who was 3 feet tall at age 5 and 4 feet tall at age 10 will be 10 feet tall at age 40.

I have very strong skepticism of any sort of hand-wavy "Look, we've made some progress, so it's highly likely we'll eventually cross some threshold that results in infinite progress."