You're making a number of assumptions, most which I think are utterly bogus
* Chinese numbers are genuine. They're not. They're probably not as bad as the US, but it's very difficult to tell. China does not release statistics necessary to validate their claims. They don't release, for example, excess death rates.
* China's policy here is going to work. It won't. It's an endemic disease now. This is going to happen all the time. Are they going to lockdown every time? What's the value of this?
* The economic fallout won't cause even greater harm. They're shutting down everything. They're already on the precipice of a real estate collapse.