I think they do recognize it by this point. I think the pullback of Starz! was a key sign of this... the content providers were not comfortable handing Netflix so much power.

You bring up a good point about Netflix/Hulu going direct to buy their content. I think we are seeing early signs of this, but it has been taking time to gain traction. Some of the early Hulu exclusives such as "If I Can Dream" were epic failures. But there have been successes as well, such as "The LXD".