Hacker News Reader

Comment by biomcgary | Hacker News Reader

538 has a strong background in polling, ostensibly, but they missed the real take away from the poll. The real change that needs to be understood is the reasons for soaring Democratic confidence in the scientific community over the past three years and if is it durable or specific to COVID-19.

The post's only graph of poll information shows a dramatic uptick in Democratic confidence in the scientific community starting in 2018 that continued into 2021. Republican confidence ticks upward for 2018 and downward for 2021. The overall drop places Republicans in roughly the same range as Democrats from the mid-1970s to mid-1980s.

If Musk continues to (appear to) push technology forward (a big if) and simultaneously is vilified for Twitter's policy changes, we could end up in the peculiar situation where the left favors "science" and the right "technology". What a crazy world that would be!

View on HN

> 538 has a strong background in polling, ostensibly,

538 has a strong background in statistical analysis, really, and that particular brand was developed through application of that to polling.

You're correct, of course. Unfortunately, the linked article was light on data and statistical analysis, which I think would have highlighted that the Democrat shift is the more statistically improbable one.

Elon Musk isn't really right wing (e.g. show me Tucker Carlson going on a podcast and smoking weed). Also Elon is more or less an outward backer of science.

Agreed on both points. However, tribal politics don't really get nuance or follow details closely.

Simply by appearing to be attacked by the left, Musk gets interest/support from the right (or, at least, the not-left). The old right is dying, literally, from a demographic perspective. With the gradual removal of the current dead-weight (heh) of conservative boomers, the right is necessarily going to shift from reactionary paleo-conservatism to something else.

The right's skepticism of science is substantially (but not entirely) directed towards science institutions not the scientific method per se, i.e., conspiracies are hiding the real science. Although Musk is not to the right, he comes across as turning over entrenched institutions (the good old boy clubs of the space and transportation industries). As long as Musk doesn't overtly attack the right, they may be broadly supportive.

The right isn't really skeptical of science either. The vast majority will still opt for advanced medical care when given the choice, and they will certainly fund the type of science that advances engineering and applied science (see the main demographic interested in automotive engineering, f1, or aircraft).

The right/left dichotomy will be easier to look beyond when alternatives like approval voting or ranked choice voting become palatable.

> we could end up in the peculiar situation where the left favors "science" and the right "technology".

Yeah, quite a ways to go there. Vaccines are "technology," after all.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com