Comment by jollybean | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jollybean | Hacker News Reader

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I don't think those are it.

1) Massive Natural Resources (carbon fuels) which mean they don't have to do anything productive and can make huge money.

2) Totalitarian with Kleptocracy. The population accepts it over anything else, Putin keeps all competitors at bay. This means a single cabal can make big decisions.

3) Cultural Chauvinism. 30% are 'totally cool' with wiping out their neighbours in the vein of some cooked up rubbish. Even when they know it's 'cooked up'. I think they are definitely product I don't think they see themselves as 'ubermench' I think it's a kind of 'superiority from an inferiority' complex. They also lack empathy compared to most other places, not on an individual level, but on a cultural level. There are no leaders who speak of hope, togetherness, prosperity - those are viewed as 'weak'. (Paradoxically their 'strong' people are just incompetent killers).

So with Money, Control, and Cultural Chauvinism - you have potentiality for big things. Like war.

'Security Council' is not that important.

Nukes are actually not important - but they do provide an 'umbrella' of cover, in that, NATO would already be in Ukraine otherwise. So they can be decisive.

Their 'former empire' is not relevant other than in the jingoistic psyche of Putin and some of the plebes.

> 3) Cultural Chauvinism

A very common thing for humans to have. US, UK, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, China – to list just a few countries which have a lengthy history of it, there are many more–and some will question whether some of the countries I have listed have really moved beyond it. (I'll even say my own country, Australia, has a decent amount of it – even if the form it takes looks rather different from that of some other countries.)

> 'Security Council' is not that important.

> Nukes are actually not important

> Their 'former empire' is not relevant

I think all these things tie into national attitudes and culture. Many Russians remember when their country was one of the most powerful countries in the world (at the height of the Cold War, arguably second only to the United States, and the Soviets even managed to beat the Americans at some things); even for those too young to remember it, it was a large chunk of the life of their parents/grandparents. The degree to which their country has fallen is rather obvious to all, and things like the permanent UN Security Council membership and the nuclear arsenal serve as enduring reminders of that past "glory". Many Russians have no interest in going back to the "glory" days, but a substantial chunk of the population do, and there are many more who may be susceptible to propaganda promoting the idea – and that makes them open to supporting, or at least not overtly opposing, government policies aimed at doing that. By contrast, there are many other countries who either have never had that kind of history, or else for which the days of "imperial glory" are much more distant, well beyond the memory of the living–and citizens of those other countries are far less likely to acquiesce in imperial designs, especially when those designs start to impose costs on everyday life.

The things that I have seen over the last two months (a lot of social media coming out of Russia, street interviews, phone calls, public statements) make me believe that Russia is completely different than elsewhere in the West.

The number of people who'd be easily willing to just murder a bunch of people for an invented reason is much greater than elsewhere.

Americans can get 'nationalist' but they are absolutely not like that, beyond a smaller group, Americans are by default positive and gregarious.

I believe Russia's dark past, their permanent oppression, total lack of hope for something to change makes them amenable to this. Basically, institutionalized cynicism.

I believe that even Putin himself, former counter espionage is the most cynical it gets, like Machiavellian without recognizing that 'hope and prosperity' are actually legitimate things. He sees everything as a cynical game of power. The Americans 'can't possibly be acting in good faith' because 'there is no such thing as good faith' - but even worse - not even knowing what 'good faith' is because he's never been exposed to it. 'People who smile are fools, unserious, they can't be competent!' etc. not able to just recognize a basic common joy.

The contrast between attitudes and motivations by Ukrainians these days is just unbelievable, which is interesting because despite historical similarities, it's almost as if 'modern Ukrainian identity' is formed out of the hope that arises when coming out of that rubble. Even regular Ukrainians, farmers seem to be on a different wavelength.

Americans are gregarious and positive but they simply do not know about what goes on abroad. Either they do not know or do not care.

That signals that they too miss a pretty basic level of empathy.

The number of countries ravaged/destroyed by americans and their decisions is countless.

The lack of empathy for the destruction of some places wrought by American power is evident, yes, but on the whole there's almost always a positive impetus.

"number of countries ravaged/destroyed by americans and their decisions is countless. " - this is rubbish. The argument could be made for Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but even then, those are uneven arguments and motivations were righteous if flawed. In Afghanistan for example, did not actually spend much time at all bombing Afghanistan infrastructure proper, there are no 'cities levelled' by Americans and there are layers of bureaucracy to try to avoid civilian damage if necessary, they have operating procedures for it, there is even some transparency though it's never perfect. They didn't consistently destroy strategic facilities like 'Oil Refineries' or 'Factories, they spent 10's of Billions investing in Afghanistan, trying to build infrastructure, schools, trying desperately to get little girls to be able to attend schools, trying desperately for some semblance of basic civility. The indifference, lack of basic civil foundation, mass corruption (Afghan leaders funnelling billions into Dubai etc.) made it an impossible task even over 20 years, though plausible with a few more decades. Despite that, there's overwhelming goodwill otherwise.

im not sure why you are limiting the argument to three countries. this just proves my point. i really dont mean disrespect, the american news media simply does not do a good job of educating americans on their own government’s actions overseas.

what happened to: syria libya egypt lebanon yemen venezuela nicaragua

the list goes on and on..

i dont think anyone would argue that arming literal islamist extremists in syria is righteous.

the number of american interventions is too many to count, and the fact that YOU believe they were righteous proves yet again that you lack empathy. what good does that do to all the victims? intervention after intervention, the situation just gets worse and worse. no one ever get held accountable, american citizens dont know any better and get to be gregarious and positive

> on the whole there's almost always a positive impetus

That's just regular old propaganda [0], even many of Russians in Ukraine think they are there for a positive reason, like actually denazifying Ukraine.

Just like plenty of Americans had the positive reason of debaathifying Iraq for serving there.

But even American soldiers are not always convinced of that "positive impetus" [1], particularly after witnessing the realities on the ground for long enough.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsehood_in_War-Time

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket

> The number of people who'd be easily willing to just murder a bunch of people for an invented reason is much greater than elsewhere.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq? Quite popular in the US at first (opinion polls at the time of the invasion showed over 70% support); people who opposed it were frequently belittled, shunned, harassed, boycotted (remember the controversy over the Dixie Chicks?). The reasons for the war were essentially invented – weapons of mass destruction which could never be found, attempts to link the Iraqi government to the 9/11 terrorist attacks despite the fact that there was no evidence the Iraqi government had any involvement. Many thousands died in the initial invasion, and hundreds of thousands in the ensuing war which the invasion began – all due to a war based on lies. Sure, Saddam Hussein was an evil man, but the world is full of evil men who do evil things – many of which the US is happy to call its friends (such as the Saudi regime) – but was removing that man from power worth all the ensuing death and destruction and chaos, especially when so many other equally evil regimes were left in place? Most of the worst things he'd done (such as genocidal massacres of ethnic minorities) were in the past, and more limited international interventions (such as the no-fly zones) appeared to be succeeding at preventing further such atrocities.

I'm not saying what Putin is doing to Ukraine is the same thing as what the US did to Iraq – Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no Saddam Hussein, and certainly not the Adolf Hitler which Russian propaganda presents him as being – only that Russians are not quite as different from Americans (among others) as you are suggesting they are.

? There were massive movements against the war in Iraq, including I thin the largest protests in all of history on Jan 15 2003 around the world, 100's of thousands of people in major cities.

That there were antagonisms between pro/against doesn't mean Americans were not empathetic one way or another, and the 'pro war' were as maligned by other side just as well i.e. 'war monger' etc..

While the popular justification for war was exaggerated, Iraq did have WMD, but more importantly, the geostrategic consideration for removing Saddam just isn't something that can be used in a populist context. You can't say "We failed to complete the mission in 1993, Saddam is operating a rogue regime" etc..

Remember that there was a 'no fly zone' over Iraq for a decade to keep the Iraqi Air Force down - this is arguably an untenable position.

If the 'post invasion' process were to have been better prepared for and planned and less direct political failure etc. I suggest people would look at it as a 'success'. My point being - the 'motives' are very tied to 'execution' in terms of our understanding of whether or not it was a good thing.

Most poignantly - the US wasn't trying to create a vassal, just the opposite. None of the Iraqi Oil contracts even when to American firms, during the occupational period US had considerable influence but would actually rather not. The US spent gazillions of dollars trying to 'get some kind of civil framework' going, which they accomplished, just barely so.

In hindsight it was a hugely bad decision, but it were to have been less chaotic than arguably it might not have been a bad decision.

Putin's decision to invade Ukraine is purely Imperialist, his objective is to 'erase' Ukraine.

If Ukraine had capitulated, sure, there would be less bloodshed, but you'd also see a nation evaporate, and, another 10's of millions of people living in another Russian Vassal s*thole.

>"Most poignantly - the US wasn't trying to create a vassal, just the opposite."

Hundreds of thousands of dead and god knows how many maimed, starved, displaced would not give a flying fuck about what the US was trying to do. Go there and try to oopsy in the face of the victims and see what happens.

> The number of people who'd be easily willing to just murder a bunch of people for an invented reason is much greater than elsewhere.

> Americans can get 'nationalist' but they are absolutely not like that, beyond a smaller group, Americans are by default positive and gregarious.

Americans killed millions, and displaced tens of millions [0] in a "crusade on terror" the consequences of which lasting to this day, for a whole bunch of invented reasons [1] [2] [3].

And that was after the largest protest movement, in human history, literally begged them not to do it [4].

Which is quite a stark contrast to the Russia Ukraine situation; That has been a situation for by now nearly a decade, with Russia being very vocal about its own interests and where it draws the line in term of NATO expansion.

All of that was ignored, for years, as Russia's interests were not deemed important, or even worth considering from a Western, and particularly US perspective, that only considered one thing; Steady NATO expansion, steady encroachment on Russia [5].

After literally decades of this [6] the bear is now in the corner, and it's very predictably leashing out, yet most of the West still keeps acting like the bear is irrational for acting like that. Particularly as the West rather wants to peddle the narrative of the expansionist bear who is soon to roll into Berlin, to justify all that NATO expansion..

[0] https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/20...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_anthrax_attacks

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein_and_al-Qaeda_li...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein%27s_alleged_shr...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15_February_2003_anti-war_prot...

[5] https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-jul-07-me-10464...

[6] https://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/13/international/bush-pulls-...

1)

This is Russian propaganda - either from someone who doesn't understand the situation (i.e. 'Useful Idiocy' as Stalin himself coined the term) - or - arguing in bad faith.

It's ironically a very good example of the cynical, authoritarian, toxic 'bad faith' acting by the Russian government, and people.

Foreign Minster Lavarov - literally just yesterday, was lambasting Israel for 'supporting the Nazi regime in Ukraine'.

The word 'repulsive' isn't strong enough.

'NATO expansion' is - much like the public story of 'WMDs in Iraq' - a canard.

It's as stupid as the lie about 'denazification' which Putin is using to justify a genocide.

Russia has no real threat from NATO - there is 0% chance of NATO aggression towards Russia, and they know it.

Concerns about 'not listening to Russian concerns for 7 years' is another lie - as though Russia had a material position to begin with.

Russia created the problems in Ukraine, quite on purpose.

In 2004 they poisoned Ukrainian Yushchenko, later, the GRU/FIS/FSB were all over, controlling and corrupting their stooge Yanukovich - who publicly declared he was going to focus on Europe, but after consolidating power, he indicated that Ukraine was going to 'Go with Russia'.

A revolution ensued - and Putin invaded Crimea and invaded (yes, invaded) the Donbas where his forces 'not in uniform' were used to start a conflict between Ukrainians.

Even the leaders of the Ukrainian ultra nationalists were on Putin's payroll - he was cynically playing both sides.

If you want to understand Putin's genocidal motivations in Ukraine, read his own words [1]

You can read Michael McFaul's (former Ambassador to Russia) great articulation of the situation [2]

2)

Saddam Hussein was a totalitarian mass murderer who invaded Kuwait (Iran before that), gassed his own citizens.

Saddam would call out members of Congress, ask them to confess to their failures ... and then have them executed on the spot.

Saddam is responsible for situation he created for himself, American intentions and methods were overall in good faith, though obviously poorly applied.

The 'WMD story' was an exaggeration of reality for reasons of populism, but it was not even false - WMD's were a problem for this regime, as was his ongoing antagonism.

[1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

[2] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears...

> Russia has no real threat from NATO - there is 0% chance of NATO aggression towards Russia, and they know it.

I actually think that this is wrong. And that is the key to understand Russia’s behavior.

Russia seems to have (legitimate I would say, given the past) fears that it will be attacked eventually like it happened in the past and needs to be - as a result of that - heavily defended.

I actually agree about the legitimate fears, but this doesn't justify invading anyone. And the situation in Ukraine was manufactured by Russia on purpose.

It's true that USA has done some terrible things in the past. And it's too bad the perpetrators never got punished. But it doesn't mean we should tolerate this behaviour elsewhere.

Just want to clarify that I am personally against invading any country. But Russia did indeed invade this country, so I am brainstorming as to what their equation may be.

Russia is after all a rational actor on the world stage, and they must have thought the benefits are stronger than the cons.

The problem with your line of thinking is that you are framing their 'rationality' as though they are a Western country.

It is 'rational' in Russian to invade a former colony, because they should be dominated by Russia. 75% of the elite are good with that, 50% of the population and the rest will be mostly indifferent in the end.

Russia obviously does not want NATO expansion but they are not afraid of it, and NATO 'on their borders' is not an existential concern.

Much like Putin set the 'red lines' for intervention and is destroying a nation saying 'others cannot be involved but we can' - his propaganda has you in the same 'mental bubble' - thinking about 'NATO' while he does the unthinkable.

Russia also has no interest in telling the truth - they lie, lie, lie. Their diplomacy is entire a function of leverage.

Your taking the intellectual posture of an abused person, listening to the excuses of 'why he had to abuse you' etc..

Again - if you want to understand, just read Putin's own words [1].

He does not view Ukraine as a 'place'. He views Ukraine as basically part of 'greater russia' and that 'Ukraine' is not real.

Also, read McFaul's thesis about NATO and Russia.

[1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

[2] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears...

To me reading this guy was immensely useful for understanding Russian way of thought: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 - starting with demographic, https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619.

> And the situation in Ukraine was manufactured by Russia on purpose.

That makes no sense at all [0], it wasn't Russian politicians that went to Euromaidan to rile the people there up how more negotiations would be "Not enough" [1], that were pretty much Western, and particularly US politicians and "their people" in Ukraine, like Arseniy Yatsenyuk [2].

Who Victoria Nuland called "our man in Ukraine" when discussing how to grandfather in his new Ukrainian government at the UN [3]

Even Germany threw in their bid for new PM of Ukraine, with a German national [4], thus Klitschko didn't even qualify for that position without an Ukrainian citizenship.

I guess they could have done it like with Natalie Jaresko, an American banker who ended up becoming the new Ukrainian minister of finance, got her Ukrainian citizenship the same day she was sworn in as minister [5].

This whole situation also lead to the Russian military having massive supply issues, as East Ukraine used to be rather integral manufacturing hub for Russian military arms [6]. Why would Russia want to "manufacture" losing all of that?

> It's true that USA has done some terrible things in the past. And it's too bad the perpetrators never got punished. But it doesn't mean we should tolerate this behaviour elsewhere.

The US still is doing these things, US troops still illegally occupy territories in places like Cuba and Syria. US drones and Special forces still kill people in at least half a dozen countries [7], with the help of countries that allegedly condone wars of aggression [8], Gitmo is still open and nobody knows how many more like it secretly exist.

In that context I find it fascinating how US war crimes are always declared like this thing from a far flung past that simply doesn't matter anymore, to then turn around and demand how the whole world should punish Russia for war crimes like its the next Nazi Germany.

Which I totally could get behind, if this was the universal reaction to such acts of aggression, but it absolutely is not. That's only the reaction when established "rogue nations" aka the alleged "bad guys" engage in such aggression, thus it can be exploited to support US foreign policy narratives.

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/john-mccain-meets-oleh-tyahn...

[2] https://web.archive.org/web/20140302111543/http://openukrain...

[3] https://youtu.be/WV9J6sxCs5k

[4] https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_66915060/ukra...

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Jaresko#Citizenship

[6] https://web.archive.org/web/20150329000809/http://www.soufan...

[7] https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30/obama-killed-a-16-year-o...

[8] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/08/germany-could-have-deli...

See, you just demonstrated it yourself: you are arguing that Russia isn’t guilty, because Ukraine did something that make Russia angry. The crucial part is not what you are arguing about, it’s your assumption that Russia has any rights to countries outside its borders.

US war crimes are a thing, sure. But Russia just demonstrated a whole another level, as proven by genocide in Bucha, Mariupol and many others, as well as mass kidnappings and relocations to Siberia. US invaded countries, while Russia is literal Nazis.

As for why Russia was manufacturing the conflict: it’s obvious, it’s an attempt to grab land. They succeeded with Crimea.

I am sorry but this is total bs, nobody cornered Russia.

That is a flippant and simplistic view of the situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lQ-E-7b-Vw

The EU put stipulations on Ukraine, that they could only have free trade status with the EU or Russia but not both. This pulled UA westward at the detriment of Russia.

Ukraine had a lower performing, cheaper economy than Russia, free trade status with the EU means that it could have setup factories for rich EU companies.

Huge untapped oil and gas deposits were discovered in Ukraine as well, putting Russia's energy dominance over Europe into doubt. With all of their financial eggs in the oil basket and all of that corruption to feed ... We now see the result.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93European_Union...

"The EU put stipulations on Ukraine, that they could only have free trade status with the EU or Russia but not both. This pulled UA westward at the detriment of Russia."

? They said the same thing to the UK, and they say the same thing to every country. Do you understand what trade harmonization means ? You can't be part of multiple trade harmonization zones.

> They said the same thing to the UK

They didn't because the UK didn't even have the same problem due to the UK already having been a EU member for a long time, as such it was already tooled for EU market demands.

While the Ukrainian economy was very much tooled towards former Soviet markets like Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, those made up 60% of Ukraine's exports in 2013 [0].

Obviously a lot of that fell apart after 2014, instead came IMF bailouts aka loans [1], which have been keeping the Ukrainian economy alive since then, now substituted with additional credits for the weapons some countries are supplying Ukraine.

> Do you understand what trade harmonization means ? You can't be part of multiple trade harmonization zones.

So you do understand the actual issue? Then why act like it ain't an issue and it's just "Russian propaganda like in the UK!"?

[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-russia-ukraine-factbox...

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/business-27233152

> The number of people who'd be easily willing to just murder a bunch of people for an invented reason is much greater than elsewhere.

Sure, of course: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Powell#/media/File:Colin...

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