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Shorting the peak always works, just as buying the dip always works.

The challenge is identifying the peaks and dips. They’re only obvious in retrospect.

Buying perceived dips is easier than shorting perceived peaks because the stock market tends to go up over time.

The problem is of course we don’t know how long bull or bear market will last.

If I was a betting man I would short everything I guess, but I’m not. I’m also sure there are others with way more knowledge on when it’s going to turn around.

> If I was a betting man I would short everything

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

But then surely it doesn't matter. To short everything you have to hope it gets worse, but not nuclear war worse. Like just so bad that you can earn a ton of money, but not so bad that the money is useless. Or so bad that the fed decides to intervene as well.

The technical expression is "buy the dip, short the rip".

I would say so.

I predicted this bull-to-bear market transition to the day (it started on Sep 27 when the Fed announced rate hikes) and yeah, everything's the opposite.