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The way I'm looking at it: if I save money moving dollars using Wise instead of PayPal, that doesn't change the value of a dollar. So why would saving money moving dollars using ETH instead of Wise change the value of either ETH or USD? The value doesn't accrue to the token holder in any case. Am I missing something?

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To some extent it does. The person moving money is paying transaction fee in ETH creating demand for ETH. Additionally, a part of that transaction fee is burned (permanently deleted) creating a deflationary effect on all other ETH.

I can see that argument, yeah. Curious to see it quantified, but I concede.

The ETH burning is easy to quantify: https://watchtheburn.com/

Currently there are inflationary block rewards so the net may still be ETH creation (depends on the day). That will change after the merge when inflationary rewards are removed though.

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