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It didn't seem realistic that they'll invade Ukraine yet they did (not in Desert Storm fashion but Mongol invasion way) You join an alliance like NATO to prepare for the possibility of a Russia invasion however likely/unlikely it is at a given point. As for Sweden in particular Gotland is 300km from Russia and it was remilitarized in 2016 - makes you wonder why.

The invasion of Sweden would most likely be limited to taking over Gotland to control the Baltic sea north of it.

(Think Crimea not the full scale invasion of Ukraine)

So you're willing to take your chances because the bully beat up someone else first?

They've shown their true colors and played their hand. They're significantly weaker now and will be for many years to come