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AC is a huge load now, with electrification heating will eclipse it. I can confirm this via my electric bill with a heat pump.

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It's funny people always forget this. There is a much bigger temperature differential to overcome to provide heating compared to cooling in most of the US. Burning natural gas for various forms of heat is probably the most energy intensive thing most houses do. Electricity is more efficient, but once heating is electrified, most residential electricity will be used to heat homes and water.

With a modern heat pump, it is more efficient (most of the time) to burn natural gas at the power plant and then use the generated electricity to heat the home (after accounting for generation and line losses, and other efficiency drains) than it is to burn the gas in a modern, super-efficient gas furnace in the home.

So whether we fully renewablize™ the grid or not, we still should encourage (read: subsidize) the replacement of gas and heating oil furnaces with heat pumps.

New AC designs seem to get about 1-2% more efficient every year, so we're making progress on both ends.

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