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Comment by pwdisswordfish0 | Hacker News Reader

>I expect that if the ticket is a success, it will be replaced by real free rides in the future.

What’s your confidence level here? Because if you can make me believe that the ticket is effectively a vote for ticketless/free ÖPNV I will buy them for everyone I know.

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If the ticket is a success (both in number of tickets sold and in people taking transit instead of the car) I'd expect the program to be continued. The exact implementation will be subject to much debate, but once you have a cheap monthly nationwide ticket established it's much easier to talk about the costs and benefits of actually charging for it.

What's the difference between this and completely free rides? AFAIK, making it "almost free" is usually preferable, as it prevents some abuse ("it's free so I'll take it even when I don't really need it", which depletes the resource), while still making it effectively free.

We've also seen the opposite being true. In Germany, oddly enough. It was called "Praxisgebühr" and it was a 10€ fee that you had to pay once per quarter year (if you went to a doctor in that quarter). Turns out, once people paid the 10€ they got into a all-you-can-eat frenzy and visited more doctors than they normally would have done, because "well, I paid for it, so might as well take advantage of it".

That's not so much the opposite, but I agree. If it were 5€ per visit, you'd probably see a lot less of this.

We have a system where you're going to pay about 350 per year for those little things if you use them. Going into a frenzy using all of that is just going to waste your own time as it takes quite some effort to use up that 350 already.

Then again, regardless of the rules and processes we make, there will always be people misusing/abusing it.

The point is, it's rodonculous.

Remember that even if the journeys are 'free' in the sense of money, they still take time. And for most people sitting on a bumpy bus isn't as comfortable as sitting at home or sitting in a park (also free ways to spend time).

You should always think of the cost of public transport as ticket price + hourly wage * time spent - value of anything you might get done on the bus.

This is true for busses, but train rides can be quite enjoyable on their own to some people, depending on the train and the view. You still have the opportunity cost of everything else you could be doing, but some people might prefer to read the newspaper on the train, enjoying some shopping a couple towns over and reading on the way back.

There is support for this idea across MPs of multiple parties, from Conservatives, Liberals, Greens and Labour/Left. It appears to be a comparatively cheap measure to reduce CO2 footprint (I am not an expert here, though, so this might be incorrect, but one hears this argument a lot) and at the same time an easy measure to improve mobility for the poor. (Thousands of people went to jail in Germany every year because they repeatedly travelled without a ticket and could not or prefered not to pay the panalty fee.) So the zeitgeist is very much in favour of it, and ecological topics (in the wider sense) are becoming more and more important for people's decission what party to vote for. So what initially were niche topics of the Greens are becoming increasingly popular and more so, when they coincide with goals of other parties, such as social policy ideas from Labour/Left and the trade unions or the administrative simplifications ideas of the Liberals. Note also that Germany is already heavily subsidising its local puplic transport, with the effect that everyone pays taxes for tickets that only a minority uses.[1]

[1] At a moment's notice, I could only find old estimates from 2008 that amount to 25 billion Euros per year (more than 300 Euros per inhabitant per year) for local and regional transport (not including long distance transport) as of which only 9 billion Euros (35%) were paid directly from tickets or similar. This means 16 billion (65%) were already payed by the public (aprox. 200 Euro per inhabitant per year) -- see: https://www.zukunft-mobilitaet.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/0... (in German).

Maybe that number includes grants for capital expenses (building new routes and stations, step-free remodelling, public transport priority, etc.) as well? According to https://www.vdv.de/vdv-statistik-2019.pdfx#page=35, for day-to-day operations farebox recovery ratios are rather around 75 %.

Edit: Looking at your link, it seems the difference might be accounted for to some extent because the 75 %-figure - might possibly not include heavy rail

- like I said definitively doesn't include grants for major capital projects and only looks at day-to-day operating expenses

- is looking at things from the perspective of the local transport operators, respectively counties/cities that mostly are directly responsible for financing any shortfalls, so the compensation payments for the state-/federal-level mandated fare reductions for pupils and handicapped people are included as part of the regular farebox income

Show me a _single_ MP from CDU or CSU in favor of free regional transport.

Even Bavaria's CSU/Free Voters government voted for the ticket in the Bundesrat today.

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