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Comment by smcn | Hacker News Reader

I run https://feetr.io. I do stock discovery as opposed to automated trading (at this point). Almost a year into recording stock picks, it is averaging 4.0624% per day across all stocks, and 5.9948% for the best stock of that day.[0]

With the above, you'd think that a trading bot would be a piece of cake. The easiest part of the process, probably. As of right now, I've found that it's hard to model intuition using code. It's easy to watch a graph and say "I think it's about time to sell", but it's hard to give that understanding to a computer. I do believe that it's a problem that can be solved, and certainly you can look at Aladdin[1] as a system that has been very successful in this space.

Don't take negativity as a reason to not do something though. If you're passionate and interested, then go prove everyone wrong.

[0] "per day" references per day that Feetr finds a stock

[1] https://www.blackrock.com/aladdin

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I think comparing the open price to the days high price is a little disingenuous. Stocks fluctuate so I'm not sure what metric would be more appropriate, but it would be interesting to see the discrepancy if you just took the close price.

I don't know that I agree. It's an algorithm geared towards day trading so the highest price of the day is a much better metric than the close price, as you should've sold by then.

This leaves only one tiny little problem --- predicting the highest price of the day before the day is over.

Any suggestions for doing this?

If you can't do this; if you sell too early or too late, your return will potentially be a lot less than picking the high price after the fact.

In other words, the stated returns are maximized assuming perfect clairvoyance --- which no one has. Basing return on closing price assumes zero clairvoyance --- which the average person has --- and is thus a more realistic measure.

The best thing you can do is leave the idea that you will time it correctly. Take profit when you are comfortable. Feetr provides stocks almost every day and, to me, the goal is compound interest.

The metrics are as they are because, right now[0], there are no better options to validate how Feetr performed. These values are, like you say, theoretical maximums and have not been matched by humans in almost a year. You get the top every so often but not consistently.

However, I wouldn't say that this makes the service less useful than people think. I have made 700% returns and this allowed me to quit my job and work on Feetr full time. Other beta testers have made more than their salary using this.

[0] As above, there will be an investment service offered at some point

4% daily?! That seems crazy high. If it found a stock even 100 days, you would have quadrupled your money over the year.

Well the 4% is across all stocks. Multiple can be found per day. Sometimes none will be found.

All data is 100% available on feetr.io after market close and, when it launches, Monday will be given for free on Reddit, Twitter, and to anyone who has a free tier account at feetr. Monthly subscription will be $8.99.

This sounds too good to be true.

Thank you very much, I appreciate that!

I would offer it for free but I believe that it's immoral (and potentially illegal) for me to be able to invest in the stocks when it launches, and so I've priced it at a point that I think people can justify. I tried to match Netflix on price, but they increased it so now I can say I'm cheaper than them.

If investing on Monday is making people more than $9 then it's worth it to subscribe, and if it isn't then I need to rethink the algorithm.

> I believe that it's immoral (and potentially illegal) for me to be able to invest in the stocks when it launches

Great marketing here, the tool is so good that it would be "immoral/illegal" for the creator to use it.

Please don't misunderstand, I absolutely have been using it: https://www.indiehackers.com/post/ive-made-over-700-return-w...

But when it launches, I have a competitive advantage over everyone using the service and that doesn't sit right with me.

Yes, hindsight is 20/20.

It's easy to pick the high/sell price for the day after the day is over. Predicting this on the fly is a whole lot trickier. It's very unlikely you will catch the day's high. Unless you're psychic, you'll probably sell either too early or too late with diminished returns..

The big guys are already using market sentiment analysis, so I think these are their scraps at best. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a secondary or deeper pattern in the data. For example, the highest gainers could be considered too risky for the big players.

Absolutely correct. Feetr doesn't invest on people's behalf at this point, it's purely stock discovery. The idea of showing the difference between the open price and the highest is that this is how much profit could've been made that day.

The concept that I try to push is to focus on compound interest. To start with a small amount and just keep rolling it over into (near) daily profits. Don't try to time the top, sell when you're comfortable.

How long before you launch? I'm willing to pay for a year upfront today

Hopefully next month but it could be pushed back a couple weeks.

And I appreciate that a lot, however I prefer monthly billing to ensure that subscribers are never locked into the service.

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