Yes, they did sit down and think that through. That's their job. This is not the first epidemic. Public health departments, unlike people on the Internet, actually study the topic.

You might consider sitting down and thinking about who is making these decisions and what their backgrounds are before you pronounce that they didn't take something into account. On what basis are you making that accusation? Do you have any idea what other things went into that decision?

Perhaps they made the wrong choice. But they weren't guessing. And I don't have a lot of respect for your guess about it if you don't even know that much.