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Comment by datalopers | Hacker News Reader

You’re forgetting about the overpaid tech workers who are soon to be laid off, possibly underwater on their mortgages, and decide it’s time to downsize.

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There are amazon, google, msft and apple, with almost $1trln annual revenue combined, they will continue paying to a plenty of workers.

Cool, I’ll let YC’s entire portfolio know there’s plenty of jobs at the big tech cos.

You are switching topics. The point is that there will be plenty of funds inflow to support housing market.

Would you like to place a wager? I bet that the median home price in tech-centric metro areas (seattle, sf/bay, la, nyc) will decline by 10% or more in July 2023 versus July 2022.

10% is like small correction comparing to previous increase, and doesn't offset mortgage rate increase.

For many in tech metros their homes could decrease in value by 25% or more from their current values and the home would still be worth more than they paid for.

In any case they won’t want to sell for a mortgage that effectively costs the same over a 30 year loan with a higher interest rate.

My tech-centric metro area had price increases of over 30% in the past two years so a 10% correction just puts us back to prices 6 months ago.

!remindme 2023-08-01

Those companies are not immune from cutting cash burn to protect their stock price.

They are all have very positive cash flow, so it is unlikely they will be cutting significant amount of fat.

They are not valued on a binary positive or negative cashfows. They are valued at NPV of future cashflows. You can justify a high burn rate with the expectation of earnings in the distant future. But as inflation/rfr goes up then then investors value money today more and more and money in the future less and less.

Overpaid based on what?

Overpaid in the same way publicly traded tech stocks and VC/PE valuations were grossly inflated. Salaries are going to come down just like valuations. As people generally won’t accept paycuts, it’ll come in the form of laying off 2 engineers and backfilling 1 of them at half the prior salary rate.

VC backed companies will start dropping like flies and the market will flood and salary requirements will drop fast.

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