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I don’t believe there will be a recession due to the savings rate continuing to recover to normal levels [1]. Indeed, we see real revenues of all retailers increasing, e.g. Walmart, Target, Amazon, Costco, etc.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

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So if revenues are increasing for companies that trade in the cheapest consumer goods, and personal savings rates are increasing, wouldn't that more likely indicate a widening gap?

All of retail is not the cheapest goods. From Disney to Roblox revenue is up.

Savings rate is decreasing not increasing.

Oh I see. But if savings rate is decreasing, wouldn't that also likely be a short term effect that retracts when people realize they can't save as much while spending what they normally would?

Shouldn’t occur in a positively inflationary recession. That is behavior that we would expect in a deflationary recession like the prelude to the 2008 period, 2007. If it goes to around 4%, I will start worrying.

I'm not sure what chart you are looking at. The one you linked showed that not only have we not recovered, but are on a sudden sharp downward spike. And revenue simply means the money coming in, so inflation explains the increase of retail revenue. People spending more, and saving less, due to rising costs at places like Walmart and Target might not be the reassuring story you think it is.

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