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I seem to remember Sweden had similar excess mortality in 2018 and 2020. Comparing with the "peers" you see fit is just as much cherrypicking as comparing with other European countries. Comparing against the same country should correct for some of the obvious confounding factors of comparing a whole country to another.

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> Comparing with the "peers" you see fit is just as much cherrypicking as comparing with other European countries.

I disagree. If you imagine almost any variable - wealth, education, weather, socialization patterns -, Sweden is vastly more different from Italy than from Finland. Any sensible analysis has to take into account what a valid comparison really is.

Yes but we have no way of quantifying that similarity except the data itself. Better to look at the country's own performance in 2018 and not have to pretend to be able to correct for any of the other of a multitude of factors.

It's not as simple as that. First of all, why pick only 2018, but not 2019, or in fact an average of previous years? Second problem is that 2020 was an exceptional year. People contacted each other less, so we expect them to die less from many other causes (traffic accidents, other transmissible diseases, etc).

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