> when they only did $5.2M in Q1…
This is insane to me. I work at a startup with a similar valuation and we bring in almost double that amount of revenue a week... and I think we're overvalued.
This is insane to me. I work at a startup with a similar valuation and we bring in almost double that amount of revenue a week... and I think we're overvalued.
Cloudflare ($NET) TTM revenue is $0.73B and $16.9B marketcap (23x P/S).
DocuSign ($DOCU) TTM revenue is $2.1B with $15.5B marketcap (7.3x P/S).
UIPath ($PATH) TTM revenue is $0.9B with $9B marketcap (10x P/S).
Okta ($OKTA) TTM revenue is $1.3B with $13B marketcap (10x P/S).
I wonder whether they are prepared for the next reality where these multiples is no longer sustainable.
Profit is a closer abstraction to cash flows (i.e. to the investor) than revenue, but it's still an abstraction. Investors looking at revenues and unit economics can sometimes--often--predict future profits and discount backwards, in the same way that a value investor can look at a company's profits and sometimes--less often, frankly--predict future cash flows from dividends or M&A and then discount backwards.
How can you have a successful business that spends more money than you make?
The term profit covers a number of metrics. All of them are abstractions. The number of assumptions that go into a GAAP profit figure is uncountable. Profit on a cash basis is less wiggly, but it's still--for valuation purposes--useful only inasmuch as it is an estimate of actual cash returns on the investment.
> you bring in more money than you spend, it means that you don’t have to worry about a “runway”, nor do you have to worry about outside funding
Lots of ways for cash-flow positive businesses to be running themselves into the ground. Garden variety is off balance sheet liabilities, though people certainly
> How can you have a successful business that spends more money than you make?
Nobody argued this, not for the long term. But there are loads of situations in which losing money in the short term is the long-term savvy move. (This literally describes all investing. You send cash out when you invest.) Valuation involves estimating the value of those future earnings today.
I wouldn't like to guess what the success rate of this game is though.
Recognize that, simplistically, Profit = Revenue - Expenses, and that expenses is a dial which can be turned somewhat arbitrarily.
People like to cite the one case where it worked and seem to be forgetting that most of Amazon’s profit comes from AWS. What are the chances that any of these startups are going to pivot to a competent different vertical to shore up their main business? That’s just like saying all you have to do is rehire the former CEO after a 10 year absence and become a trillion dollar company after almost going bankrupt.
And no Amazon did not use “excess capacity to jump start AWS”.
https://www.networkworld.com/article/2891297/the-myth-about-...
Today or tomorrow?
If a company has to spend more than they make today in order to build something they can sell for profit tomorrow, that's investing in the future.
Just looking at revenue or profit is too simplistic. It's also too simplistic to only look at a single point in time.
It’s not a single point in time, most of those same companies who IPOd before becoming profitable recently are still not profitable and being punished by the market more than the market in general.
That doesn’t help now that the public market doesn’t have an appetite for companies that aren’t profitable.
So if retail investors aren’t interested in non profitable companies, there is no profit it in it for investment bankers to flip the stock at IPO to take advantage of a “pop” meaning that VCs are less interested in throwing good money after bad.
How have the former “unicorns” focused on “growth” fared in the last few years?
For instance DoorDash couldn’t make a profit during a worldwide pandemic when everyone was ordering takeout.
If you service has complexity and needs lots of hand-holding and is expensive to generate the sales, then it's harder to say what to do with sales numbers.
For instance, even when Amazon was “losing money” for years, they were using cash flow to expand. If they were running short of money, they could have just stopped building infrastructure. They had marginal profit unlike companies that are losing money on each sell.