For all the handwaving people like to do, this is the bottom line, and it's not clear to me why researchers haven't spent more time clearly formulating this, vs a lot of proving that various tasks and games don't actually require intelligence.
As best I can formulate it, "AI" can't "escape" its programming, and just a neural network even less so. There is no mental model of the world to rationalize against, and if there was, it would be pre-defined or coded in some way that it still couldn't be escaped. Whatever tasks a ML model has been deliberately programmed with just have nothing in common with intelligence. Scaling doesnt change that.
I subscribe to the idea that with ML we may have understood how some of the sensory mechanisms work, like visual recognition, but we're not actually closer to the intelligence part.