Wow. Every household driving an F150 would appear to the grid like bring 7x houses online.
It certainly puts the efficiency of writing a bike for short trips in perspective.
Bringing one battery in that's the size of 7 houses is a one-time fill up, plus the energy expenditure of however much you drive the car, which is independent of the size of the battery.
It's like saying buying a bigger water tank means doubling your water usage.
This is all hand wavy math, but If I'm generous on both ends that's about 56 full charge cycles per year. Based on OP math that would be the equivalent to 392 days of electricity for a typical US house. If I am less generous that's 85 full charge cycles or the rough equivalent of 595 days of electricity.
Each F-150 Lightning is the rough equivalent of adding 1.1 - 1.63 houses worth of electricity to the grid.
I can't speak to whether this is a potential problem or not, but I would guess that there would be serious problems if every house in a neighborhood suddenly went out and bought an F-150 Lightning.
California has had issues with their grid but that's not because of people buying EVs as much as it is incompetence in regards to grid maintenance generally.
States like Massachusetts also have higher EV adoption and there are no signs of the grid becoming overburdened. Heck, Texas cities have a TON of EVs also and electricity is still 10¢/kWh from Oncor.
The grid will be fine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dfyG6FXsUU
Now suddenly it’s all electric everything! Heat pumps! EVs! Heat pump water heaters!
That assumes every household fully recharges that F-150 each day, meaning they drive at least 300 miles per day. Instead, I think it's generally assumed that a household might drive that much in a week instead, which appears to the grid like bringing 2x houses online. Hence the estimates that electric vehicles are going to double the amount of electricity that we need to generate.
DC fast chargers are challenging for local grids but home / office based AC chargers with smart charging don't really contribute to grid loading because they only draw substantial power during non-congested periods.
The EPA/Monroney window sticker for the Ford Lightning claims 49 kWh / 100 miles, so about 1 kWh for 2 miles. So you could drive approximately 28,000 miles on the same power that a home consumes.
Does my math make sense? Did I miss something?
Texas struggles to get electricity to citizens in recent summers. How will it handle the coming electric vehicle wave?
My relatives in rural Texas can easily drive 100+ miles a day just to go to work and the store/errands. If they needed to take a trailer that day, they would likely reach the limit of electric range.
My guess, wealthier rural families will probably get the ball rolling by purchasing electric cars for commuting and keeping the big diesel truck for weekend toy hauling/livestock/etc. This will incentivize some infrastructure in rural communities until city adoption reaches peak levels and we start to see infrastructure spread out from cities to support road trips and road warrior business commuting.