The biggest risks that come from estrogen therapy are blood clots (estrogen thickens blood) and breast cancer. Blood clots are much less likely when injecting estrogen since it does not pass through the liver which would produce metabolites that complicate matters for your body. Further even though trans women have a much increased risk of breast cancer they are still 70% less likely to get breast cancer than cis women. [3] The risk of prostate cancer also drops by something like two orders of magnitude versus a cis man who has functioning gonads.
Taken all together it seems that if you account for things like the fact that trans women are one of the most impoverished groups globally and suffer from HIV at a rate of about 40% (as in 2/5 trans women have HIV probably because of doing survival sex work) you'd expect a well-off socially accepted trans woman on HRT to live longer than a genetically identical cis man. She has an improved immune system due to lower testosterone and her chances of prostate cancer have plummeted. [4]
[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-science-eunuchs/the-ultim...
[2] https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2013/12/in-men-high-t....
[3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8403717/#:~:tex....
[4] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342512760_Prostate_...
[5] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/147470491301100508
[6] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/05/estrogen...