We design embedded too and I'm with you. My good friend and associate is one of the world's foremost aftermarket component traders. European, but based in Shenzhen. Same industry for 30 years. Clients include everyone who's anyone. When he stops telling me about record monthly profits after drinking, I'll believe it's over. Until then, no. FWIW, the beer-brag-barometer-index (BBBI) has been tracking solidly upward since 2019 with little exception.

Not sure the size/volume of your endeavor but it's possible the car manufacturers are leading indicators, given their size—it was a rude shock to them post-COVID that they had lost their place in line, but they're still big enough to muscle back to the front.

I'm sure a complete coincidence, but last week I got chips I've been after for over a year (USB 3.2 hub IC)

Same. Still seeing Xilinx FPGAs only available from brokers for $800.

Lead time on the same chip >16 months.

You think it could just be because there's so many orders ahead of you but that the supply stream actually exists now but didn't before?

No easing here either (IoT), but things are at least not getting worse